Saturday, January 1, 2011

Palestinian dies after inhaling gas at W Bank protest

Palestinian dies after inhaling gas at W Bank protest

The body of Jawaher Abu Rahmeh is carried by Palestinians in Bilin (1 January 2010) About 3,000 people attended Jawaher Abu Rahmeh's funeral in Bilin on Saturday

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A Palestinian woman has died after inhaling gas fired by Israeli troops during a protest against the West Bank barrier at Bilin on Friday, medics say.

Jawaher Abu Rahmeh, 36, died early on Saturday despite undergoing hours of treatment in a hospital in the nearby city of Ramallah, its director said.

The Palestinian Authority condemned what it called an Israeli "war crime".

The Israeli military said the protest was a "violent and illegal riot" and that it was investigating the death.

Officials had "unsuccessfully contacted the Palestinian Authority to obtain a medical report", a statement added.

Military sources told Israeli media that Ms Abu Rahmah's death might have been the result of an asthmatic condition compounded by tear gas.

'Unidentified gas'

Palestinians, together with Israeli and international activists, have held weekly mostly peaceful protests against the barrier near Bilin for the past five years. Some have been attended by stone-throwing youths.

Israeli security services have fired tear gas, stun grenades, rubber bullets and, on occasion, live rounds at the protesters.

West Bank barrier

Protesters run from tear gas during a demonstration in Bilin, 31 December 2010

On Friday, Ms Abu Rahmeh was taking part in the demonstration with about 250 others when tear gas was reportedly fired by Israeli troops in the area.

She was later admitted to Ramallah Hospital "with very weak breathing as a result of inhaling a gas", its emergency department director, Dr Mohammed Eidi, told the Reuters news agency.

"The type of gas is still not identified. We put her on respiratory system. But she died this morning," he added.

About 3,000 people attended her funeral in Bilin later on Saturday.

Her brother, Bassem Abu Rahmeh, died during a similar protest in 2009 after being struck in the chest by a tear gas canister fired by Israeli forces.

The Palestinian Authority's chief peace negotiator, Saeb Erekat, told the AFP news agency that it condemned the "abominable crime by the Israeli occupation army in Bilin against people taking part in a peaceful demonstration and consider it an Israeli war crime against our people".

Israel says the barrier was established to stop Palestinian suicide bombers entering from the West Bank.

But Palestinians point to its route, winding deep into the West Bank around Israeli settlements - which are illegal under international law - and say it is a way to grab territory they want for their future state.

In 2004, the International Court of Justice at The Hague issued an advisory ruling that the barrier was illegal and should be removed where it did not follow the Green Line, the internationally recognised boundary between the West Bank and Israel.

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'Hasta la vista' for California Governor Schwarzenegger

'Hasta la vista' for California Governor Schwarzenegger

Arnold Schwarzenegger slapping the hands of school children California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is stepping down after seven years in office

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Hollywood action star turned California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is preparing to leave office in January, following one of the more challenging periods in the state's history. The BBC's Peter Bowes looks back at the so-called governator's transition from muscle-bound Austrian actor to US politician.

The era of "the Governator" is drawing to a close.

After seven years running America's most populous state, Arnold Schwarzenegger is stepping down.

He will be replaced on Monday by Jerry Brown, the Democrat who beat the billionaire Republican businesswoman Meg Whitman in the November election.

Austrian-born Schwarzenegger, a former Mr Universe, world-class bodybuilder and Hollywood action star, stormed into office as the 38th governor of California in a special recall election in 2003.

Start Quote

You got to see elements of what made Arnold Schwarzenegger the man”

End Quote Michael Linder TV producer

It was to be his highest-profile and most challenging role - a far cry from the weight-lifter's early days in the Golden State.

"We made the first home video work-out cassette, called Shape Up With Arnold," says Michael Linder, a TV and radio producer who first met Mr Schwarzenegger in the early 1980s.

"You got to see elements of what made Arnold Schwarzenegger the man," he adds.

"He told me that when he was a boy growing up in Austria he was so ashamed of the muscular development of his calves that he cut off all of the trouser legs in his closet, from the knee down, so that he would have to walk around and be humiliated by his puny calves.

"It was that kind of dedication that really took him from being an emigre bodybuilder with promise, to major motion picture star and then the governor of California."

No 'ordinary governor'
Arnold Schwarzenegger celebrating his victory in the California gubernatorial recall election Mr Schwarzenegger won the approval of California voters in 2003

Mr Schwarzenegger replaced Governor Gray Davis, who was hugely unpopular and a career politician.

The former actor, a Republican, was full of enthusiasm, promises and California dreams.

From the outset, it was clear that he would be no ordinary governor.

"Schwarzenegger surrounded himself with red carpet glam," says Mr Linder, who now runs KVB.FM - an internet radio station based at Venice Beach, where Mr Schwarzenegger first pumped iron in the US.

"He smoked cigars, he was surrounded by burly, beefy bodyguards. He was accompanied by a satellite truck that broadcast everything he did on the web, live in real time," adds Mr Linder.

The superstar governor won early approval from voters when, on his first day in office in California's state capital, Sacramento, he repealed the increase of the car tax, which had been due to take effect.

"Now, they [California residents] will have more money in their pockets to pay for needed goods and services," said the new governor.

It was a promising start with an electorate yearning for change and a better standard of living.

Arnold Schwarzenegger at a press conference for the movie Terminator 3 Mr Schwarzenegger is not the first actor to serve as governor of California

"We did not giggle the way the rest of the world did at the Governator assuming office," says Dr Sherry Bebitch Jeffe, a senior fellow at the School of Policy, Planning and Development at the University of Southern California.

"This state was more than willing to give Arnold Schwarzenegger a chance. Remember, he's not the first actor-governor we have had.

"The first one, in modern history, Ronald Reagan, did a very good job as governor, was respected and of course went on to become president of the United States."

'Inexperienced' politician

Mr Schwarzenegger pledged to reform California's political system and fix its broken economy. But he was thwarted as the state's perilous financial position went from bad to worse.

"Arnold Schwarzenegger had no idea what it was like to govern," says Dr Jeffe.

"Sacramento isn't Hollywood, the power is not with the charismatic action hero alone, if at all. In Sacramento, any governor has to deal with the legislature that feels that it is the governor's equal."

Start Quote

In the end voters look at what the product is, and Californians have seen very little that has changed their lives, that's moved them out of this recession”

End Quote Dr Sherry Bebitch Jeffe University of Southern California

Mr Schwarzenegger frequently locked horns with his Democratic rivals in the state legislature.

He famously expressed his frustration in a colourful speech to the Republican National Convention in 2004.

"To those critics who are so pessimistic about our economy, I say, 'Don't be economic girlie men!'" the governor said.

He received rapturous applause.

At the time, Mr Schwarzenegger was the Republicans' new poster boy.

There was even talk of a move to change the law so that one day, as a naturalised American, he could run for president.

But these days there is no such talk, as Mr Schwarzenegger's political star has faded.

"In the end, voters look at what the product is, and Californians have seen very little that has changed their lives, that's moved them out of this recession," says Dr Jeffe.

"We are the centre of the foreclosure crisis. We have a long way to go before Californians feel that they are out of the woods economically, and we've gone deeper and deeper into those woods during the tenure of Arnold Schwarzenegger.

"It's very hard to argue that Arnold Schwarzenegger is the cause of the state's recession but the worst happened on his watch."

Fighting global warming

Mr Schwarzenegger will be remembered more favourably, by his supporters, for his environmental initiatives.

Arnold Schwarzenegger speaking at a press conference on California greenhouse gas emissions Mr Schwarzenegger helped introduce strict laws aimed at curbing greenhouse gas emissions

He helped to introduce some of America's toughest laws to try to combat global warming.

He inspired the idea of a hydrogen highway - a road system with hydrogen-equipped filling stations to allow hydrogen-powered cars to move around the state with ease.

The concept, however, is still to become a reality.

When he leaves office, Mr Schwarzenegger has said he hopes to write books, specifically the autobiography that he says publishers have been urging him to write for two decades.

He has also pledged to continue his work on public policy, although he has not been specific about working with any organisation.

One theory is that he could try to become a global ambassador as an environmentalist.

A return to film-making seems unlikely, at least in a major role.

The one-time Terminator has said he doubts whether he would have the patience to hang around a set, during the often laborious process of shooting a movie.

Whatever his role, it is clear that Mr Schwarzenegger will be back.

Hasta la vista, Governator.

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Palestinians pursue 'Plan B' after failed talks

Palestinians pursue 'Plan B' after failed talks

Children wave flags of Latin American countries. The flags of Brazil, Argentina, Bolivia and Ecuador waved in a Ramallah school

Peace talks between the Palestinians and Israelis have reached an impasse over the thorny issue of Jewish settlements. As Washington searches for a way forward, the Palestinians are taking things into their own hands by pursuing a "Plan B", asking countries to recognise an independent Palestinian state. The BBC's Yolande Knell reports from Jerusalem.

As the Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas laid the symbolic cornerstone for a new embassy in Brazil on Friday, he hoped the greater significance of the act would be noted.

In recent weeks the South American nation and its neighbours, Bolivia, Argentina and Ecuador, have all officially recognised Palestine as an independent state within 1967 borders - that is to say the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and Gaza.

Uruguay says it will do the same in 2011 and Palestinian officials suggest at least another two countries are lined up to follow suit, though they are not saying which.

Start Quote

This is revitalising and re-consecrating a principle that emanates from international law and all the agreements that we've signed before.”

End Quote Nabil Shaath Palestinian negotiator

As the prospects for a negotiated two-state solution to the conflict with Israel have dimmed once again, the Palestinians say they are pursuing new and alternative diplomatic options.

"Since all the peace process has been based on the 1967 borders we are asking countries to recognise us on these borders," says Palestinian negotiator, Nabil Shaath, who has accompanied Mr Abbas on his trip.

"This is revitalising and re-consecrating a principle that emanates from international law and all the agreements that we've signed before."

Jeopardising talks?

Israel however, disagrees. The foreign ministry spokesman, Yigal Palmor, insists that the Palestinians can only achieve statehood through a peace deal with Israel.

"We are now breaching the whole framework that has allowed us to negotiate so far," he states.

The Israelis want the Palestinians to drop their tactic and return to direct talks.

Start Quote

By rewarding the Palestinians as it were, when they refuse to negotiate, this will certainly not encourage them to return to the negotiating table.”

End Quote Yigal Palmor Israeli Foreign Ministry

These were launched on 2 September 2010 in Washington but stalled just weeks later when a partial freeze on Israeli settlement building in the occupied West Bank expired.

"By rewarding the Palestinians as it were, when they refuse to negotiate, this will certainly not encourage them to return to the negotiating table," Mr Palmor says. "If we don't negotiate how will we ever be able to get an agreement?"

The United States also opposes the Palestinian approach. This month the House of Representatives passed a resolution calling on Palestinian leaders to stop trying to gain recognition for a state from other nations.

It urged the US administration to "deny any unilaterally declared Palestinian state" and "veto any resolution by the United Nations Security Council to establish or recognise a Palestinian state outside of an agreement negotiated by the two parties".

Recognising state-building

In Brussels, however, the efforts of Mr Abbas and his aides have been slightly more successful, reflecting growing frustration at Israeli intransigence on settlement building.

A recent EU communique hinted that recognition of a Palestinian state was a future option.

Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayyad and EU Representative Christian Berger The Palestinians aim to complete building of state institutions by mid-2011 with help from donors.

"We welcome the World Bank's assessment that "if the Palestinian Authority maintains its current performance in institution building and public services, it is well positioned for the establishment of a state at any point in the near future,"" it read.

The EU has since signed a new 31m-euro ($41m) financing deal to help the Palestinian Authority's much lauded drive to build the institutions of statehood. This has already brought economic growth and improvements in security and public services.

Mr Abbas can celebrate such results on his new year visit to South America as he meets leaders and Palestinian expatriates who live in large numbers in the region.

Reports suggest that meanwhile Israel has stepped up diplomatic activity, warning of the dangers of prematurely recognising Palestinian statehood.

Strategic thinking

The late Palestinian leader, Yasser Arafat, unilaterally declared the establishment of a state in 1988, winning recognition from about 100 countries, mainly Arab, Communist and non-aligned states - several of them in Latin America.

However, this has had little impact on efforts to resolve the Arab-Israel conflict.

Now, though, the Palestinians hope that recognition can be part of their "Plan B", adding to pressure on Israel after the US officially abandoned its attempts to secure a new moratorium on settlement construction as it works to revive peace talks.

While Washington has proposed a return to indirect negotiations, the Palestinians are refusing.

They say that for now they will continue a strategy to gain international support for their cause.

This also includes, Palestinian officials say, non-violent opposition to Israel's occupation of the West Bank, pursuing reconciliation between rival Palestinian political factions and asking the UN to condemn Israeli settlements.

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In pictures: New year celebrations

In pictures: New year celebrations




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Tuesday, December 28, 2010

Earth project aims to 'simulate everything'

Earth project aims to 'simulate everything'

The Earth The Living Earth Simulator will collect data from billions of sources

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It could be one of the most ambitious computer projects ever conceived.

An international group of scientists are aiming to create a simulator that can replicate everything happening on Earth - from global weather patterns and the spread of diseases to international financial transactions or congestion on Milton Keynes' roads.

Nicknamed the Living Earth Simulator (LES), the project aims to advance the scientific understanding of what is taking place on the planet, encapsulating the human actions that shape societies and the environmental forces that define the physical world.

"Many problems we have today - including social and economic instabilities, wars, disease spreading - are related to human behaviour, but there is apparently a serious lack of understanding regarding how society and the economy work," says Dr Helbing, of the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, who chairs the FuturICT project which aims to create the simulator.

Knowledge collider

Thanks to projects such as the Large Hadron Collider, the particle accelerator built by Cern, scientists know more about the early universe than they do about our own planet, claims Dr Helbing.

What is needed is a knowledge accelerator, to collide different branches of knowledge, he says.

"Revealing the hidden laws and processes underlying societies constitutes the most pressing scientific grand challenge of our century."

The result would be the LES. It would be able to predict the spread of infectious diseases, such as Swine Flu, identify methods for tackling climate change or even spot the inklings of an impending financial crisis, he says.

Large Hadron Collider Is it possible to build a social science equivalent to the Large Hadron Collider?

But how would such colossal system work?

For a start it would need to be populated by data - lots of it - covering the entire gamut of activity on the planet, says Dr Helbing.

It would also be powered by an assembly of yet-to-be-built supercomputers capable of carrying out number-crunching on a mammoth scale.

Although the hardware has not yet been built, much of the data is already being generated, he says.

For example, the Planetary Skin project, led by US space agency Nasa, will see the creation of a vast sensor network collecting climate data from air, land, sea and space.

In addition, Dr Helbing and his team have already identified more than 70 online data sources they believe can be used including Wikipedia, Google Maps and the UK government's data repository Data.gov.uk.

Drowning in data

Integrating such real-time data feeds with millions of other sources of data - from financial markets and medical records to social media - would ultimately power the simulator, says Dr Helbing.

The next step is create a framework to turn that morass of data in to models that accurately replicate what is taken place on Earth today.

Start Quote

We don't take any action on the information we have”

End Quote Pete Warden OpenHeatMaps

That will only be possible by bringing together social scientists and computer scientists and engineers to establish the rules that will define how the LES operates.

Such work cannot be left to traditional social science researchers, where typically years of work produces limited volumes of data, argues Dr Helbing.

Nor is it something that could have been achieved before - the technology needed to run the LES will only become available in the coming decade, he adds.

Human behaviour

For example, while the LES will need to be able to assimilate vast oceans of data it will simultaneously have to understand what that data means.

That becomes possible as so-called semantic web technologies mature, says Dr Helbing.

Today, a database chock-full of air pollution data would look much the same to a computer as a database of global banking transactions - essentially just a lot of numbers.

But semantic web technology will encode a description of data alongside the data itself, enabling computers to understand the data in context.

What's more, our approach to aggregating data stresses the need to strip out any of that information that relates directly to an individual, says Dr Helbing.

Crowd wearing face masks The Living Earth Simulator aims to predict how diseases spread

That will enable the LES to incorporate vast amounts of data relating to human activity, without compromising people's privacy, he argues.

Once an approach to carrying out large-scale social and economic data is agreed upon, it will be necessary to build supercomputer centres needed to crunch that data and produce the simulation of the Earth, says Dr Helbing.

Generating the computational power to deal with the amount of data needed to populate the LES represents a significant challenge, but it's far from being a showstopper.

If you look at the data-processing capacity of Google, it's clear that the LES won't be held back by processing capacity, says Pete Warden, founder of the OpenHeatMap project and a specialist on data analysis.

While Google is somewhat secretive about the amount of data it can process, in May 2010 it was believed to use in the region of 39,000 servers to process an exabyte of data per month - that's enough data to fill 2 billion CDs every month.

Reality mining

If you accept that only a fraction of the "several hundred exabytes of data being produced worldwide every year… would be useful for a world simulation, the bottleneck won't be the processing capacity," says Mr Warden.

"Getting access to the data will be much more of a challenge, as will figuring out something useful to do with it," he adds.

Simply having lots of data isn't enough to build a credible simulation of the planet, argues Warden. "Economics and sociology have consistently failed to produce theories with strong predictive powers over the last century, despite lots of data gathering. I'm sceptical that larger data sets will mark a big change," he says.

"It's not that we don't know enough about a lot of the problems the world faces, from climate change to extreme poverty, it's that we don't take any action on the information we do have," he argues.

Regardless of the challenges the project faces, the greater danger is not attempting to use the computer tools we have now - and will have in future - to improve our understanding of global socio-economic trends, says Dr Helbing.

"Over the past years, it has for example become obvious that we need better indicators than the gross national product to judge societal development and well-being," he argues.

At it's heart, the LES is about working towards better methods to measure the state of society, he says, which would account for health, education and environmental issues. "And last but not least, happiness."

Source

~~~~~~

Commentary

We have enough valuable data to judge the measures they described in their last paragraphs.

We can accurately measure which states have the greatest healthcare and survival rates, as a factor of cost, satisfaction, and quality.

The statistics and data are there, and have been read widely, so i don't understand why they seem to be playing this ignorance game.

Maybe they aught to head over to Gapminder.com, and learn a thing or two about trends and statistical data about our world.

No police in Mexico town after last officer kidnapped

No police in Mexico town after last officer kidnapped

File picture of a Mexican policeman, Ciudad Juarez The US border region is the centre of Mexico's drug smuggling operations

The Mexican border town of Guadalupe has been left with no police force after the last officer was kidnapped.

Erika Gandara's house was set on fire by unidentified gunmen before she was abducted last week, according to the state prosecutor's office.

All her colleagues had resigned or were killed in the region's drug war.

More than 30,000 people have died in drug-related violence since 2006 when the President announced a crackdown on the cartels.

Ms Gandara, 28, had patrolled the town of 9,000 inhabitants on her own since June.

"Nobody wants to go into policing here, and the budget just isn't there anyway," she told AFP news agency earlier this year.

Guadalupe is about 5km (3 miles) away from the US border and 60km (40 miles) from Ciudad Juarez, the centre of drug smuggling operations into the United States.

It is also close to the hamlet of Praxedis Guadalupe Guerreror, where a 20-year-old college student got the job of police chief in October because no one else applied.

The Mexican government has sent soldiers to patrol Guadalupe and to investigate the kidnapping of Ms Gandara.

Source

Latin America sees uncertain 2011

Latin America sees uncertain 2011

Carmen Miranda at the BBC in April 1948 What will be the South American Way in 2011?

As the year is coming to an end, Latin America is preparing for 2011 amid uncertainty over the future direction of some of the region's biggest economies.

Brazil begins the new year with a new president, while Argentina will see in 2011 without a new budget.

Mexico's very integrity as a state is threatened by drug-trafficking gangs. For its part, Peru is recalling darker times as the daughter of an authoritarian ex-leader prepares to run for the presidency.

But at least the region should emerge fully from recession, with the worst performing country, Venezuela, expected to return to growth.

BRAZIL

With Dilma Rousseff due to be inaugurated as president on 1 January, the announcement of who will fill her key economic posts has failed to calm markets' fears over future policy.

Brazilian flag flies over the Alemao favela Brazil still has many social problems to tackle

Since analysts have begun to talk about "unsustainable" levels of public spending, they were not exactly heartened to hear that the man responsible, Finance Minister Guido Mantega, is to remain in the job.

To stop the economy overheating as the government pumped money into it, Central Bank head Henrique Meirelles was forced to raise interest rates, which now stand at 10.75%.

But Ms Rousseff wants to bring rates down in a hurry, so Mr Meirelles is to be replaced by the bank's current head of financial regulation, Alexandre Tombini.

Even so, Ms Rousseff may not get the desired result. Mr Tombini helped devise the inflation targeting policy that has favoured high interest rates during the eight years of Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's presidency.

In fact, the markets reckon he will have to put rates up still further, perhaps as early as his first monetary policy committee meeting on 18 and 19 January, although another rise would only put more upward pressure on the already overvalued real.

At the same time, the need for social spending on the government's poverty-fighting Bolsa Familia programme has not gone away.

Business horizons

The year behind us, the year ahead

And don't forget that Ms Rousseff first came to prominence as head of the government's continuing $290bn accelerated growth programme (PAC), designed to remedy what she describes as "years of stagnation" in the country's infrastructure.

ARGENTINA

Argentines spent much of this year speculating about who would be the government's presidential candidate in the October 2011 election.

Would it be the current president, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner? Or would her husband and predecessor, Nestor Kirchner - perceived as the true power behind the throne - return to the fray?

Finally, with a year to go before the vote, the succession was definitively resolved: Mr Kirchner died of a heart attack at the age of 60.

Procession in Buenos Aires the day after Nestor Kirchner's death, with banner reading: Nestor with Peron, the people with Cristina The legacy of General Peron lives on in Argentina

In an already fragmented political landscape - where parties claiming to represent General Juan Peron's legacy provide not just the government, but also much of the opposition - this was a serious blow.

If the current tide of sympathy for President Fernandez lasts, she may well be re-elected. But since the Kirchners' interventionist economic policies have always been more opportunistic than strategic, much could go wrong in the meantime.

Ms Fernandez will certainly enjoy near-total economic power in 2011, since Argentine deputies' failure to pass a budget for next year allows her to rule by decree.

However, inflation is currently believed to be running at more than 25%, despite official statistics indicating less than half that figure.

Argentina has just renewed contact with the International Monetary Fund, after years of hostility, in an effort to devise a new and more accurate inflation index. But unless the true rate actually falls, a slowdown in growth predicted for 2011 could make life difficult.

MEXICO

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton stirred up controversy in September when she compared drug cartel violence in Mexico to the Colombian insurgency of the 1980s.

While President Barack Obama moved swiftly to quash the comparison, some commentators said the main issue raised by Mrs Clinton's remarks was why it had taken her so long to notice.

Drugs haul found in a tunnel under the Mexico-US border in Tijuana Keeping Mexican drug shipments out of the US is a tough task

The problem for the US is that its economy is deeply intertwined with Mexico's, through their common membership of the North American Free Trade Agreement (Nafta).

In past US recessions, the rule has been that when Wall Street sneezes, Mexican businesses can end up in intensive care.

Right now, Mexico's legitimate economy is proving resilient, with manufacturing performing well, especially the car industry.

But the continued weakness of the US is expected to mean lower growth south of the border in 2011, prompting the Mexican central bank to keep interest rates on hold at 4.5%, with a possibility of cuts next year.

Unfortunately, US demand for Mexico's illegitimate exports, without which there would be no Mexican drug cartels, is not expected to slacken any time soon.

PERU

Although his country has the highest projected 2010 growth rate among Latin America's major economies (8.3%, according to the IMF), Peru's president, Alan Garcia, has just a 34% approval rating.

Admittedly, that is far better than the 5% rating that he had at the end of his first presidential term, from 1985 to 1990.

But that earlier term was an unmitigated disaster that saw the country's GDP shrink by one-fifth and the number of people in poverty rise by five million.

Peru's Alan Garcia and Chile's Sebastian Pinera The Peruvian and Chilean leaders are both free-marketeers

This time, Mr Garcia has presided over boom, not bust. Yet the gains have not been equally distributed among Peru's population: while urban coastal areas have benefited, the rural highlands remain impoverished.

Mr Garcia's last presidential stint was followed by a decade of authoritarian rule under Alberto Fujimori, who rebuilt Peru's economy and saved it from the Maoist Shining Path insurgency, but rode roughshod over the country's democratic process.

Mr Garcia is not eligible to run again in the April 2011 presidential election. However, Mr Fujimori's daughter, Keiko, is hoping to win the post for her Fuerza 2011 party.

She and Mr Fujimori's own successor, Alejandro Toledo, are vying with a former mayor of Lima, Luis Castaneda, in opinion polls.

All three front-runners are drawn from the right or centre-right. As a result, the victor is likely to join Chile's Sebastian Pinera and Colombia's Juan Manuel Santos, both elected during 2010, in South America's small band of non-leftist leaders.

VENEZUELA

Next year, President Hugo Chavez's Bolivarian republic is likely to rejoin its neighbours in returning to growth after the global recession.

By any objective standards, however, Venezuela has had a miserable year, with easily the worst economic performance in the region, not to mention the highest inflation at about 30% a year.

A menu outside the "socialist" Cafe Venezuela displays the cafe's prices (R) as well as the "capitalist" prices (L) charged elsewhere State-run cafes in Venezuela charge a "fair" price, not a "market" price

And since state control of the economy has been growing during this period, with more and more firms being taken over, Mr Chavez and his allies have fewer people to blame.

The president has not yet carried out his threat to nationalise food and drink giant Polar, the largest company still in private hands.

But the government's ability to manage food production and distribution is questionable after scandals involving thousands of tonnes of rotting food that were imported by state-run retailer Pdval, but never distributed.

Even the oil industry, responsible for more than 90% of Venezuela's foreign currency inflows and 50% of government revenues, is suffering. While state oil company PDVSA has diversified into social programmes, it has become less efficient at its core business of actually producing oil.

In 2011, expect sluggish growth in Venezuela and perhaps another devaluation of the bolivar.

But you can also expect most foreign firms to shun a country in which anything can be expropriated at the drop of a revolutionary beret.

How to Win Friends: Have a Big Amygdala?

How to Win Friends: Have a Big Amygdala?

Dorling Kindersley/Getty Images

Got a big social network? Then you probably have a large amygdala, according to a new study that found a connection between the size of this brain region and the number of social relationships a person has. The complexity of those relationships — as measured by the number of people who occupied multiple roles in a social network such as being simultaneously a friend and a co-worker — was also linked with amygdala size.

The findings are in line with past animal studies that have shown that species with larger social groups have relatively larger amygdalas, when brain and body size are taken into account, compared with less social animals. "Our question was, could we see this variation within a single species?" says lead author Lisa Barrett, director of the Interdisciplinary Affective Science Laboratory at Northeastern University. (More on Time.com: Where Does Fear Come From? (Hint: It's Not the Creepy Basement)

Understanding the relationship between the size of an individual's amygdala and his or her social relationships could help lead to treatments for a variety of conditions that involve difficulties with social connections, such as depression or autism.

So what does the amygdala actually do? "[It's] strongly connected with almost every other structure in brain. In the past, people assumed it was really important for fear. Then they discovered it was actually important for all emotions. And it's also important for social interaction and face recognition," Barrett says. "The amygdala's job in general is to signal to the rest of brain when something that you're faced with is uncertain. For example, if you don't know who someone is, and you are trying to identify them, whether it is a friend or a foe, the amygdala is probably playing a role in helping you to perform all of those tasks."

Barrett says it is commonly assumed that the size of a structure reflects its computational capacity, noting that if your larger amygdala easily allows you to identify people you've met before at a cocktail party, you will have a much easier time connecting and socializing. "You can imagine that might be one thing someone with big amygdala might be better at and that might lay the foundation for easier formation of social bonds," she says. (More on Time.com: Why That Rich Guy is Being So Nice to You)

The research, which was published in Nature Neuroscience, found a moderate correlation between amygdala size and the number and complexity of social relationships in 58 healthy adults aged 19 to 83.

Interestingly, however, amygdala size was not related to the quality of those relationships or to whether or not people enjoyed socializing. "We looked at measures of 'How much do you enjoy social interaction?' and 'Are you satisfied with your social support?' and that was not related to amygdala volume," says Barrett.

Prior research has shown that people with autistic spectrum disorders have smaller amygdalas, which could help explain their social problems. But these studies cannot determine cause or effect — whether having a small amygdala makes socializing difficult, or whether lack of social interaction shrinks the amygdala — or whether both factors interact and result in a smaller brain region. For example, it may be that the amygdala requires a certain amount of social experience in order to develop properly; not receiving that, it may remain small but capable of further growth given the right social exposure. (More on Time.com: Forget the Joneses: How Envy Drives Destructive Behavior)

"This study represents an important initial study in human neurosociology — the study of the neurobiology of human living groups. The findings, while preliminary, suggest that the structure and functional capacity of our brain is influenced by the nature, quality and quantity of relational connections we — and our extended relational community — have," says Dr. Bruce Perry, senior fellow at the ChildTrauma Academy who was not associated with the research. (Full disclosure: Perry and I have co-authored two books.)

While this study did not look at the size of people's online social networks, the researchers plan to include those measures in future research to determine their influence.



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Bangladeshi TV station told not to show hangman series

Bangladeshi TV station told not to show hangman series

Noose The hangman said he carried out the officially sanctioned killings to reduce his time in jail

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A television channel in Bangladesh has been ordered to stop broadcasting interviews with the country's most famous hangman, officials say.

They say that the government has ordered the three-part show off air because it could frighten children.

The hangman, who has hanged nine people in his 21 years in prison, has requested anonymity.

But he told the BBC that the programmes on the private channel, Banglavision, were mainly about his lifestyle.

The prison authorities wrote to Banglavision requesting them not to broadcast the programme, which "might affect the tenderness of the children and the mentality of the mass people of the country".

Trained in jail

So far only one part of the series has been broadcast.

The letter wrtten to the TV station from the prison authorities said that it was in the public interest for the programmes not to be broadcast.

Programmes in Bengali on Banglavision are broadcast in many countries in Europe, the Middle East and the US.

"The motive of our programme was not a campaign against capital punishment or in favour of capital punishment," said Banglavision Head of News Mostofa Feroz.

Start Quote

It was just an offbeat story about the lifestyle of a hangman inside the jail”

End Quote Mostofa Feroz Head of news, Banglavision TV

"It was just an offbeat story about the lifestyle of a hangman inside the jail. I do not understand how it breaches the jail code.

"A released man cannot be stopped from talking to the media - it is against the freedom of media and his freedom of rights," he said.

The hangman started working as an executioner seven years ago and was trained for the job while serving a 30-year murder sentence - passed down when he was aged only 16 - for murder.

He was released early in August after getting 18 months' time off for working as a hangman.

Bangladesh has executed 411 people since the country gained independence in 1971. All hangmen are prisoners or former convicts who have trained in jail for the job.

The unnamed hangman told the BBC that he carried out the hangings to reduce his time in jail.

"Although I did not like to hang anyone in the gallows, I did it to decrease the span of my jail term. For each hanging, I got two months' exemption from my 30-year jail term," he said.

The hangman said that his most memorable hangings were those of the killers of the country's first president, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman.

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Why don't Chinese spend more money?

Why don't Chinese spend more money?

If anyone on the planet can afford to head down to the neighborhood mall and indulge in a shopping spree, you'd think it would be the Chinese. After all, they live in an economy that routinely posts growth rates of 9% or higher, resulting in surging incomes and boundless job opportunities. While much of the world experienced GDP contractions and dramatic spikes in unemployment during the Great Recession, China, supported by massive stimulus programs, barely missed a beat. In theory, as income increases, and the prospects for future earnings become brighter, families should be more willing to postpone savings and spend now.

But in China, just the opposite is happening. It's still proving difficult to convince the average Chinese to part with his or her money, even though his or her stash of cash is bigger than ever. Sure, Chinese consumers are spending more and more each year on items like cars and appliances. But simultaneously, the urban Chinese household saves twice as much of its income today as 20 years ago – from 15% in the early 1990s to over 30% in recent years. Oddly, as Chinese incomes have grown, so has their propensity to save.

The fact that Chinese are saving more is of great importance to all of us. Getting the Chinese to spend is necessary to restore the global economy to true health. If the world is to “rebalance” – or eliminate the massive surpluses and deficits that underpinned the Great Recession – consumers in surplus nations like China need to spend more. If they did, China would import greater quantities of stuff from the rest of the world and reduce its giant trade surplus, while simultaneously shifting China's sources of growth away from its unhealthy dependence on investment (in sectors like property). However, the role of consumer spending in China's economy has been heading in the wrong direction. Private consumption accounted for 46% of GDP in 2000; by 2009, that ratio had fallen to about 35%. Very simply, the sources of Chinese growth aren't rebalancing, and without that, the entire global economy can't rebalance either.

Why won't the Chinese loosen their wallets? A new study by economists Marcos Chamon, Kai Liu and Eswar Prasad sheds some light on the financial calculations of the average Chinese. After studying Chinese statistical surveys of household incomes dating back to the 1980s, they conclude that even though Chinese incomes have increased, so has the uncertainty Chinese feel about their income, due to the market-oriented nature of Chinese reforms. And as a result of that heightened uncertainty, Chinese are more inclined to save a larger proportion of their income even in a rapid-growth economy.

This study shows just how much more spending power the Chinese have gained over the years. From 1989 to 2006, average annual household income almost tripled, from RMB12,830 to 32,040 in real terms. (To give you an idea, at current exchange rates, that's a jump from about $1,900 to $4,800.) That increase in income is without question a result of the dismantling of the Communist command economy in China, a process started by Deng Xiaoping in the late 1970s. Those reforms expanded the role of the private sector, gave the average Chinese more freedom over how they work, and opened up the economy to the world through foreign investment and trade.

But those same capitalist reforms have also made the life of the average Chinese riskier. Instead of permanent employment at state-owned or collective enterprises (SOCEs), Chinese workers are more likely to have jobs in the private sector where job security is not as guaranteed. In the sample used in this study, the proportion of workers employed in the SOCE sector fell dramatically from 81% in 1989 to 64% in 2006. Even for those workers still employed by SOCEs, the terms of employment are not as secure as they used to be. State companies in China have gone through their own painful process of market reform, to make them more competitive with private firms and more profitable. Jobs in those state enterprises are no longer locked in for life either, while wages are linked more to performance and productivity. Here's a bit from the study:

The transition from a centrally planned economy to a market economy may have resulted in an increase in firm-level volatility related in part to state enterprise restructuring and an increase in the link between wages and firm-level performance. Wages paid to workers may be increasingly tied to firm performance and more reflective of individual productivity due to tightening of budget constraints on SOCEs, increased competition and more openness to foreign trade.

On top of that, Chinese workers have also had to adjust to a new pension scheme. Pensions were once paid by enterprises, but in 1997, a national system was introduced with “individual accounts” that hold retirement contributions from both employer and employee. This new system seems to have caused Chinese workers to fret that they won't have enough of a nest egg for their golden years – and likely with good reason. Retired workers are probably seeing reduced pension payments compared to their pre-retirement income in the new system compared to the old.

The result of these changes to the Chinese economy is a U-shaped savings pattern. Savings rates are higher among younger people – who feel the need to set aside a “buffer” of savings for protection against greater income uncertainty – and older folks – who are beefing up savings for their retirement. Here's more from the study:

Higher income uncertainty and pension reforms can together explain much of the rise in average savings among urban households in China…Moreover, the calibrated response to saving rates implies changes to the cross-section of savings over time that are sharper among households at the two ends of the age distribution of household heads. Even 10 years after the initial increase in uncertainty and pension reform, we estimate the youngest and the oldest households save 5 percentage points more than before those changes, compared to only 2.5-3.5 percentage points more for those in their late thirties-early forties.

The Chinese government is fully aware of the impact market reform has had on income security, and thus on the country's efforts to rebalance its economy, and policymakers are striving to address it by building up the confidence of the Chinese consumer. The government, for example, is undertaking a massive investment in healthcare to convince Chinese they don't have to save as much to cover possible medical bills. But the process of making Chinese feel secure enough to spend will be slow. Whatever Chinese policymakers do, they can't eliminate the greater degree of risk inherent in an economic system based on free enterprise. Short of returning to the old socialist system of worker protection, the average Chinese family is going to have to adjust to the new realities of a market-oriented economy – both the potential upside (greater income potential, more job choice) and the downside (less job security, fewer automatic benefits). Remember, many of these market-based reforms are still very new to the Chinese (10-15 years old), so they're just not accustomed to the level of uncertainty that comes with capitalism. In other words, the Chinese are in the process of dealing with the kind of risks that Americans have faced for centuries.

The Chinese are thus saving more to protect themselves. That may be wise for their own personal security, but not necessarily all that great for the world economy. Confidence in the future, even one as bright as China's, won't be created overnight, whatever Chinese policymakers attempt to do. So don't expect the Chinese consumer to swoop in and save the world economy, and least not these days, when it badly needs saving.


Source

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Commentary

I've read articles about this before and the facts really do support these conclusions.

Per capita, the Chinese are horrible at spending.

When that changes is anyone's guess. But as mentioned, we can't simply assume they'll change overnight, especially since they've been trending in the opposite direction.

These signs are most telling when you look at Chinese ghost towns built by the government for people to move into suburbia, and yet they stand there nearly empty.

They also have a huge income disparity, something surprising for a once strong communistic political policy.

Strike over massive Bolivia fuel price rises begins

Strike over massive Bolivia fuel price rises begins

Soldiers help a woman on to a military truck during the strike in El Alto, Bolivia Soldiers and military vehicles provided alternative means of transport for some

Related stories

Transport workers in Bolivia have begun an indefinite strike, called in protest at an increase of more than 70% in the price of fuel.

Commuters struggled to reach the main cities, and army lorries were used to help people get to work.

The Bolivian government withdrew its heavy subsidies for petrol and diesel on Sunday, saying it was not prepared to keep fuel prices artificially low.

It said much of Bolivia's oil was being smuggled out of the country.

But the drivers' confederation, which groups together bus and lorry operators, said the price rise would have a negative impact that would be widely felt.

"This won't just affect the transport sector, this will affect everyone because all prices will rise," said spokesman Franklin Duran.

The country's vice-president said that it no longer made economic sense to subsidise an industry whose profits were flowing out of Bolivia.

"The subsidy of hydrocarbon products, which has gone up from $80m in 2005, to $380m in 2010 [...] instead of going to the exterior - instead of being an open vein of Bolivians that nourishes foreign interests - [...] should stay in the country to benefit Bolivians," said Alvaro Garcia Linera.

Fuel prices in the impoverished South American country, which had been frozen for almost a decade, will now rise by 73% for low-octane petrol and 83% for diesel.

The government has said it will compensate for the fuel price rise by increasing public sector wages and freezing utility bills.

But the sudden embracing of free market principles will be a tough test of support for the country's left-wing President Evo Morales, correspondents say.

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Mid-life crisis for Amnesty?

Mid-life crisis for Amnesty?

Peter Benenson Peter Benenson's letter writing to dictators formed the foundations of Amnesty

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To understand Amnesty International at all, you need to think of this: an ordinary citizen sits in an ordinary home, writing an extraordinary letter on behalf of somebody they don't know, to a dictator who doesn't care.

The letter says: "We know you have imprisoned X. We know they are illegally detained. Be warned. We will go on writing until you have freed them."

The absurd act of faith that writing letters about prisoners of conscience might have an effect on the most hardened of dictators was first made by one man 50 years ago - the British lawyer, Peter Benenson.

He was so incensed at the imprisonment of two Portuguese students for a trivial insult to a dictator, that it stirred him to set up an international campaign on behalf of all political prisoners.

Incredibly, it caught on.

Political prisoners, prisoners of conscience, were acutely of their time in the 1960s, in a world thick with dictatorship and totalitarianism - fascist dictatorships in Spain, Portugal and much of Latin America, despots aplenty in Africa, communism from East Germany through the Soviet Union to China. The letters started to flow in all directions, as well as the evidence of their impact.

Prisoners released

Within three years of its foundation, Amnesty members had "adopted" 770 prisoners and no fewer than 140 were released.

By 1970, Amnesty could claim 2,000 prisoners released, membership in the tens of thousands and acceptance by the international community.

It was Amnesty's three-year campaign against torture that led to the unanimous UN adoption of the Declaration against Torture in 1975.

Moving forward

Amnesty supporters hold a protest against Guantanemo detention centre

Stephen Hopgood, the author of Keepers of the Flame - Understanding Amnesty sets out his vision of the future for Amnesty under new Secretary General, Shalil Shetty.

"He is a continuation of the reforming trend, so he is a Secretary General that will want to take Amnesty even more into social, economic and cultural rights.

"The individual casework focus may be kept less on those core traditional issues of prisoners of conscience and torture. The international human rights movement is so broad now and so much focused on issues of poverty, social exclusion etc, that I would expect to see more of that work.

"He has also been brought in undoubtedly to try to realise the great dream of Amnesty, which is a truly global membership.

"Throughout 50 years, it singularly failed to establish any serious membership outside western, northern, southern Europe, the United States, Canada, Australia, New Zealand.

"Mr Shetty is an Indian Secretary General. One of his main goals will be to try to decentralise Amnesty.

"It has long been a dream to move it away from London. Peter Benenson the founder, when he left, wanted it moved."

And the awards kept pouring in, such as the Nobel Peace Prize in 1977. As Amnesty's profile grew, so did its ambitions.

In 1985, it took on the plight of refugees, in 1989 the death penalty. By 1996 Amnesty was campaigning for a permanent International Criminal Court.

Amnesty's own rhetoric grew - by 2001 it spoke of pursuing the "full spectrum of human rights", including economic, social and cultural rights. By 2009, it decided to campaign against "poverty, insecurity and exclusion".

But Amnesty's very success has brought problems with it that surround the organisation on its 50th anniversary.

Mission creep?

To campaign for prisoners of conscience is one thing, very tangible. To enlarge the campaign to concern itself with "prisoners of poverty" makes it so large and all-embracing as to be virtually meaningless.

Has it become a body more concerned with feeling good rather than doing good? Has it fallen foul of "mission creep"?

The broader remit is both a good and a bad thing, according to documentary film maker, Roger Graef, whose promotional fundraising work helped make Amnesty a household name.

He welcomes Amnesty's involvement in more causes but also has worries.

"I don't think the image you convey with the brand of Amnesty is anything like as clear as it was for the people who are behind bars for speaking out against oppression.

"The proposition was so clear and irresistible for anybody who had a conscience that even the dictators were moved by the letters."

The controversies have multiplied in recent years, particularly the way it campaigned against Guantanamo Bay, highlighting the rendition of detainees and their treatment in Guantanamo Bay.

When Amnesty UK began using the released Guantanamo detainee, Moazzam Begg as more than a victim of ill treatment, rather a representative of human rights, it provoked a full-scale row.

Gita Saghal, Amnesty's long standing head of gender, protested publicly and left the organisation.

Moazzam Begg Amnesty UK faced criticism over its relationship with Guantanamo detainee Moazzam Begg

She charged that Amnesty was soft towards non-state organisations, however violent they might be; and that with Moazzam Begg, it failed to follow its own advice on "making the distinction between supporting what he went through in Guantanamo and treating him as a human rights advocate".

More problematically, in a letter responding to supporters of Ms Saghal, Amnesty UK used the phrase "defensive jihad" as if the organisation itself condoned any violence that might be committed under its terms. Even supporters of Amnesty think the phrase was incautiously used.

Throughout this time, Amnesty UK has played a straight bat, explaining that a full internal inquiry revealed nothing that required significant change in the way it behaved or presented itself.

"Amnesty has been a tremendous defender of victims of state abuses where there have been few such about," says human rights lawyer, Conor Gearty. He argues that is what Amnesty should do because that is where it is most needed. Other bodies will inevitably come under scrutiny

"What is very dangerous," he says, "is if Amnesty or any other human rights organisation allows itself to be persuaded that it needs to police the actions of third parties on an equal level."

Secular church

Striking the balance sheet on Amnesty at 50 is a complex activity.

Its new Secretary General, Shalil Shetty, finds a big agenda awaiting his attention.

It is still largely a Northern, white-liberal body with its roots in Christianity, Judaism, and Quakerism. Its members are mostly in Britain, the United States and Holland.

It is rather like a secular church, though many would feel uncomfortable with such a thought. Even its friends say it is a bit colonial too. Can it be truly internationalised?

More simply, is Amnesty trying to do too much? Is it now simply: too much about everything?

Does it need to reconnect to the original single simple improbable vision of its founder Peter Benenson?

Fifty years ago he believed that ordinary people could do good by personal acts of faith, by bearing witness through an act of conscience; he believed that if you wrote your letter someone else might be set free?

The idea still retains its original power.

Amnesty at 50 can be heard on BBC Radio 4 at 8pm on Tuesday 28 December 2010 and after on BBC iPlayer

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Monday, December 27, 2010

Bombay Stock Exchange launches Islamic index

Bombay Stock Exchange launches Islamic index

Digital stock ticker outside The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) building Backers say that the index would "unlock the potential for Sharia investments in India".

The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) in the Indian city of Mumbai has launched a new index which consists of companies that meet the Islamic legal code.

The Tasis Shariah 50 was formed using guidelines from an Indian Shariah advisory board.

Studies have found that most Muslims in India are excluded from the country's formal financial sector.

That is because Islamic law does not allow investment in companies that sell goods like alcohol, tobacco or weapons.

Neither does it allow investment in companies that derive significant profit from interest.

The index is intended to be the basis for other Shariah-compliant financial products.

'Come and invest'

BSE Managing Director and Chief Executive Madhu Kannan said that the new index would attract Islamic and other "socially responsible" investors both in India and overseas.

Start Quote

All Muslim countries of the Middle East and Pakistan put together do not have as many listed Sharia-compliant stocks as are available on the BSE”

End Quote Tasis Director of Research and Operations Shariq Nisar

"This index will create increased awareness of financial investments among the masses and help enhance financial inclusion," he said in a statement.

Companies included in the index have been screened by Tasis, which is based in Mumbai and whose board members include Islamic scholars and legal experts.

"Before anyone can attract investors, we need to put in place institutional infrastructure, and having an index to track Shariah-compliant stock is important," MH Khatkhatay, senior adviser to Tasis, told the Reuters news agency.

"If you have an ETF (exchange traded fund), for example, you need an index, or if overseas investors want to invest in Shariah index in India, this is an invitation for people to come and invest."

Tasis said the index would "unlock the potential for Sharia investments in India".

"The BSE has the largest number of listed Sharia-compliant stocks in the world," said Shariq Nisar, director of research and operations at Tasis.

"All Muslim countries of the Middle East and Pakistan put together do not have as many listed Sharia-complaint stocks as are available on the BSE."

Stocks will be reviewed every month to ensure they continue to meet the criteria - any which do not will be removed, officials say.

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Neanderthals cooked and ate vegetables

Neanderthals cooked and ate vegetables

NEANDERTHAL Hunter, gatherer, vegetarian masterchef?

Neanderthals cooked and ate plants and vegetables, a new study of Neanderthal remains reveals.

Researchers in the US have found grains of cooked plant material in their teeth.

The study is the first to confirm that the Neanderthal diet was not confined to meat and was more sophisticated than previously thought.

The research has been published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

The popular image of Neanderthals as great meat eaters is one that has up until now been backed by some circumstantial evidence. Chemical analysis of their bones suggested they ate little or no vegetables.

This perceived reliance on meat had been put forward by some as one of the reasons these humans become extinct as large animals such as mammoths declined due to an Ice Age.

But a new analysis of Neanderthal remains from across the world has found direct evidence that contradicts the chemical studies. Researchers found fossilised grains of vegetable material in their teeth and some of it was cooked.

Although pollen grains have been found before on Neanderthal sites and some in hearths, it is only now there is clear evidence that plant food was actually eaten by these people.

Start Quote

We have found pollen grains in Neanderthal sites before but you never know whether they were eating the plant or sleeping on them or what”

End Quote Professor Alison Brooks George Washington University

Professor Alison Brooks, from George Washington University, told BBC News: "We have found pollen grains in Neanderthal sites before but you never know whether they were eating the plant or sleeping on them or what.

"But here we have a case where a little bit of the plant is in the mouth so we know that the Neanderthals were consuming the food."

More like us

One question raised by the study is why the chemical studies on Neanderthal bones have been wide of the mark. According to Professor Brooks, the tests were measuring proteins levels, which the researchers assumed came from meat.

"We've tended to assume that if you have a very high value for protein in the diet that must come from meat. But... it's possible that some of the protein in their diet was coming from plants," she said.

This study is the latest to suggest that, far from being brutish savages, Neanderthals were more like us than we previously thought.

Source

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Commentary

People have known for a while that we weren't feral beasts roaming the land.

This is just further proof of that.