Saturday, August 27, 2011

Ebola: the solution may be in sight

Ebola: the solution may be in sight

Research in the US suggests that treatment against the deadly Ebola virus may be less than a decade away


Colorized transmission electron micrograph (TEM) rof an Ebola virus virion.
The killer: a colourised transmission electron micrograph of an Ebola virus virion. Photograph: Alliance Images/ Alamy

One of the world's most feared pathogens, the Ebola virus, has a key structural weakness that could be vital in developing drugs to treat the fevers it triggers, US researchers announced in Nature last week. The group say they have bred mice that produce low levels of a protein known as Niemann-Pick C1 which transports cholesterol inside cells. The mice then survived exposure to Ebola, which causes a haemorrhagic fever, and to a cousin pathogen, the Marburg virus.

"This research identifies a critical cellular protein that the Ebola virus needs to cause infection and disease," said one of the lead scientists in the project, Sean Whelan of Harvard Medical School. "It also improves chances that drugs can be developed that directly combat Ebola infections," he said.

Ebola fever was first detected by doctors in the 1970s in villages along the Ebola river in the Democratic Republic of Congo and is usually fatal in humans. There have been at least two dozen Ebola outbreaks in Africa though doctors still do not know exactly how the virus is spread. There are no vaccines or drugs to fight it.

The virus is known to interfere with the cells that line the interior surfaces of blood vessels and with the process of blood coagulation. As a result, it causes blood vessel walls to become damaged and to rupture.

The new research announced at Harvard is therefore extremely important. It indicates that the protein Niemann-Pick is used by the Ebola virus to get deep inside cells. "This virus needs this protein," said Kartik Chandran, of Albert Einstein College of Medicine in New York. "Mice that have less of this protein are very resistant to being killed by Ebola and the Marburg virus."

Crucially, Chandran has also been involved in work that led to the discovery, in 2005, of a compound that has demonstrated considerable promise in being able to block the Niemann-Pick protein in human cells, according to a separate paper that was published in Nature last week. "Essentially, this compound can block infection by the virus," said Chandran.

The compound has not yet been tested in mice, and would still need to show it is effective in non-human primates. Chandran said blocking Niemann-Pick in the long term would probably cause illness.

The researchers involved in the studies say they are very optimistic that the new understanding they have built up about the behaviour of the Ebola virus and the means by which it gets into cells may eventually lead to treatments. However, they acknowledge it will take many years, and possibly even a decade of further research and studies, before treatments would be available for human use.

Source

Pill to wake up Persistent Vegetative State Patients

Reborn

We have always been told there is no recovery from persistent vegetative state - doctors can only make a sufferer's last days as painless as possible. But is that really the truth? Across three continents, severely brain-damaged patients are awake and talking after taking ... a sleeping pill. And no one is more baffled than the GP who made the breakthrough. Steve Boggan witnesses these 'strange and wonderful' rebirths.

For three years, Riaan Bolton has lain motionless, his eyes open but unseeing. After a devastating car crash doctors said he would never again see or speak or hear. Now his mother, Johanna, dissolves a pill in a little water on a teaspoon and forces it gently into his mouth. Within half an hour, as if a switch has been flicked in his brain, Riaan looks around his home in the South African town of Kimberley and says, "Hello." Shortly after his accident, Johanna had turned down the option of letting him die.

Three hundred miles away, Louis Viljoen, a young man who had once been cruelly described by a doctor as "a cabbage", greets me with a mischievous smile and a streetwise four-move handshake. Until he took the pill, he too was supposed to be in what doctors call a persistent vegetative state.

Across the Atlantic in the United States, George Melendez, who is also brain-damaged, has lain twitching and moaning as if in agony for years, causing his parents unbearable grief. He, too, is given this little tablet and again, it's as if a light comes on. His father asks him if he is, indeed, in pain. "No," George smiles, and his family burst into tears.

It all sounds miraculous, you might think. And in a way, it is. But this is not a miracle medication, the result of groundbreaking neurological research. Instead, these awakenings have come as the result of an accidental discovery by a dedicated - and bewildered - GP. They have all woken up, paradoxically, after being given a commonly used sleeping pill.

Across three continents, brain-damaged patients are reporting remarkable improvements after taking a pill that should make them fall asleep but that, instead, appears to be waking up cells in their brains that were thought to have been dead. In the next two months, trials on patients are expected to begin in South Africa aimed at finding out exactly what is going on inside their heads. Because, at the moment, the results are baffling doctors.

The remarkable story of this pill and its active ingredient, zolpidem, begins in 1994 when Louis Viljoen, a sporty 24-year-old switchboard operator, was hit by a truck while riding his bike in Springs, a small town 30 minutes' drive east of Johannesburg. He suffered severe brain injuries that left him in a deep coma. He was treated in various hospitals before being settled in the Ikaya Tinivorster rehabilitation centre nearby. Doctors expected him to die and told his mother, Sienie Engelbrecht, that he would never regain consciousness. "His eyes were open but there was nothing there," says Sienie, a sales rep. "I visited him every day for five years and we would speak to him but there was no recognition, no communication, nothing."

The hospital ward sister, Lucy Hughes, was periodically concerned that involuntary spasms in Louis's left arm, that resulted in him tearing at his mattress, might be a sign that deep inside he might be uncomfortable. In 1999, five years after Louis's accident, she suggested to Sienie that the family's GP, Dr Wally Nel, be asked to prescribe a sedative. Nel prescribed Stilnox, the brand name in South Africa for zolpidem. "I crushed it up and gave it to him in a bottle with a soft drink," Sienie recalls. "He couldn't swallow properly then, but I helped him and sat at his bedside. After about 25 minutes, I heard him making a sound like 'mmm'. He hadn't made a sound for five years.

"Then he turned his head in my direction. I said, 'Louis, can you hear me?' And he said, 'Yes.' I said, 'Say hello, Louis', and he said, 'Hello, mummy.' I couldn't believe it. I just cried and cried."

Hughes was called over and other staff members gathered in disbelief. "Sienie told me he was talking and I said he couldn't be - it wasn't possible," she recalls. "Then I heard him. His mother was speechless and so were we. It was a very emotional moment."

Louis has now been given Stilnox every day for seven years. Although the effects of the drug are supposed to wear off after about two and a quarter hours, and zolpidem's power as a sedative means it cannot simply be taken every time a patient slips out of consciousness, his improvement continues as if long-dormant pathways in his brain are coming back to life.

I see Louis before his daily medication, yet he is conscious where once he would have been comatose. Almost blind because of a separate and deteriorating condition, there is a droop to one side of his mouth and brow because of brain damage. His right arm is twisted awkwardly into his side.

Louis is given a pill, and I watch. It is 8.30am. After nine minutes the grey pallor disappears and his face flushes. He starts smiling and laughing. After 10 minutes he begins asking questions. His speech is impaired because of the brain damage and the need, several years ago, to remove all his teeth, but I can understand him. A couple of minutes later, his right arm becomes less contorted and the facial drooping lessens. After 15 minutes he reaches out to hug Sienie. He pulls off her wedding ring and asks what it is. "It's a suffer-ring," she jokes. And he says, "Well, if you're suffering, you should make a plan!" The banter continues and he remembers conversations from the previous day and adds to them.

"Louis," I ask, "do you feel any change in awareness before and after the pill?" "No," he says. "None whatsoever." Whatever is happening, he feels the same. "How do you know this is your mother?" I ask, referring to Sienie. Remember, Louis cannot see. He says: "Because I recognise her voice and I know she loves me."

Nel was as amazed at Louis' awakening as everyone else. A GP in Springs for 40 years, when he isn't seeing up to 100 patients a day, he spends his time restoring vintage cars. Married with three grown-up children, he has lived in the same house all his life.

"Something strange and wonderful is happening here, and we have to get to the bottom of it," he says. "Since Louis, I have treated more than 150 brain-damaged patients with zolpidem and have seen improvements in about 60% of them. It's remarkable."

After Louis' awakening was publicised in the South African media, Dr Ralf Clauss, a physician of nuclear medicine - the use of radioactive isotopes in diagnostic scans - at the Medical University of Southern Africa, contacted Nel to suggest carrying out a scan on Louis. "The results were so unbelievable that I got other colleagues to check my findings," says Clauss, who now works at the Royal Surrey County Hospital in Guildford. "We did scans before and after we gave Louis zolpidem. Areas that appeared black and dead beforehand began to light up with activity afterwards. I was dumbfounded - and I still am."

Clauss says immediate improvements in the left parietal lobe and the left lentiform nucleus were visible. In lay terms, these are important for motor function, sight, speech and hearing.

"I remember saying to Dr Nel that we were witnessing medical history," says Clauss.

No one yet knows exactly how a sleeping pill could wake up the seemingly dead brain cells, but Nel and Clauss have a hypothesis. After the brain has suffered severe trauma, a chemical known as Gaba (gamma amino butyric acid) closes down brain functions in order to conserve energy and help cells survive. However, in such a long-term dormant state, the receptors in the brain cells that respond to Gaba become hypersensitive, and as Gaba is a depressant, it causes a persistent vegetative state.

It is thought that during this process the receptors are in some way changed or deformed so that they respond to zolpidem differently from normal receptors, thus breaking the hold of Gaba. This could mean that instead of sending patients to sleep as usual, it makes dormant areas of the brain function again and some comatose patients wake up.

In Kimberley, the once booming home of the De Beers diamond empire, Riaan Bolton's family heard of Nel's work after he and Clauss had papers published in the medical journal NeuroRehabilitation and the New England Journal of Medicine several months ago. Riaan suffered severe brain trauma when he was thrown from a car in a traffic accident in July 2003. A keen cricketer and rugby player, the 23-year-old was studying to become an industrial engineer but still found time to play guitar in a band.

"One specialist said he had a 5% chance of recovering, another said he had no chance whatsoever of regaining consciousness," says his mother, Johanna. She and her husband, Tinus, spend about £1,000 a month on round-the-clock care for their son in a converted garage at their home, but until June they had seen no sign of awareness in him. Then they asked their doctor, Clive Holroyd, to contact Nel for advice.

"There was no movement, no recognition, just nothing," says Tinus. "Then we gave him the pill and we noticed him moving the fingers in his left hand and touching them against each other. His eyes went big and he began looking from left to right.

"The doctor started asking Riaan questions. He said, 'Look at me, Riaan' and Riaan looked straight at him and focused on his face. Then the doctor asked him to move his hand and he moved it. And then he lifted his head from the pillow and began looking around. I couldn't believe it."

I watch as Riaan is given his medication. As with Louis, his face flushes and his eyes begin to sparkle and focus within minutes. Gone is the 1,000-yard stare. He hugs his mother and looks at her face, but even though I am amazed, the family reckon this isn't his best day so far. They show me a number of DVDs they shot in July. In them, Riaan responds to questioning, nods and shakes his head, drinks through a straw, often laughs and says, 'Hello.' He remains severely brain damaged, but there is clear evidence of understanding and communication.

"It has given us hope," says Johanna. "To have communication with him again, to know he becomes aware of us and to tell him we love him - knowing he can hear us - is simply beyond belief. It has been a very moving experience."

Holroyd remains perplexed. "There is a measurement of the depths of coma called the Glasgow scale, with three being the worst and 15 being normal," he says. "Riaan was six, but within 10 minutes of taking the pill he is up to nine. It's simply unbelievable. And the mind-boggling thing about this is that it's done with a sleeping pill.

"Some time ago, Riaan had a cardiac arrest and it was a difficult call as to whether or not to resuscitate him. His mother insisted he should be, and look at him now. From now on, this will cause serious ethical issues over whether to let such coma victims die." Those issues became even more complicated last week, when a British woman believed to be in a persistent vegetative state astonished doctors by responding to their voices.

Although these awakenings are the most dramatic aspect of the zolpidem phenomenon, Percy Lomax, the chief executive of ReGen Therapeutics, the British company funding the South African trials, believes Nel's work with less brain-damaged patients could be the most significant. Many stroke victims, patients with head injuries and those whose brains have been deprived of oxygen, such as near-drowning cases, have reported significant improvement in speech, motor functions and concentration after taking the drug.

"The potential for this drug is enormous," says Lomax. "ReGen has applied for a patent to use the drug, now out of patent and generically available, for the treatment of secondary brain injury after brain trauma. The object of the clinical trial is to scientifically establish that the compound works in the way it has been shown to work in individual cases. It will be carried out on patients known to react well to zolpidem, and by lowering the dosage it is hoped that the sedative side-effects will be reduced but the brain stimulation will still continue.

"It may be that further research will allow us to better understand the way the drug works and to develop a new generation of better-targeted pharmaceuticals." He says market research estimates the potential market for zolpidem in brain-damaged patents could top $4.3bn (£2.3bn).

The company that first developed zolpidem, Sanofi-Aventis, was contacted by Nel and Clauss but appears to have chosen not to become involved in the trials or the use of the drug on brain-damaged patients. Instead, the brain scans on up to 30 patients will be carried out at the Pretoria Academic Hospital by Professor Mike Sathekge, head of nuclear medicine, and Professor Ben Meyer, one of South Africa's most renowned physicians.

"The results so far could be potentially very important," says Meyer. "We have never before spoken of damaged cells in the brain going into hibernation - we have thought of them as necrotic, or dead, cells. But we know cells can go into hibernation in the heart and thyroid, so why not the brain? If there are hibernating cells in damaged brains, it may be that this drug helps to wake them in some people."

In South Africa, I meet a procession of brain-damaged patients who feel the drug has changed their lives for the better. There is 32-year-old Miss X, who can't be named for legal reasons. She suffered four cardiac arrests and hypoxia, a lack of oxygen to the brain, when a hospital's apparent failure to diagnose a gall bladder problem resulted in her contracting septicaemia four years ago. She can barely stand, her arms are in spasm, she cannot speak - although her intelligence has not been affected - and the left side of her face droops. She was given zolpidem for the first time just a week before I see her and her parents say the improvement was such that she has come back for more.

Miss X is given a pill by Nel at 4.37pm. By 4.50 the left side of her face is no longer drooping, her eyes sparkle and she smiles broadly. At 5.02, her arms have relaxed enough for her to fold them and she is laughing with her parents. Ten minutes later, she stands up, stretches to her full height and claps her hands.

Using a card keyboard, she spells out answers to questions I have for her. "Can you use the keyboard more quickly with the medication?" She answers: "Yes." Does she feel an improvement? "Yes, I am not falling over. I am not coughing so much. I can swallow easier. I feel my limbs are much more relaxed." But does she feel more tired? "No". What is she hoping for? "To talk again. I'd love to be able to call my cats to come to me."

At 5.22pm, Miss X issues a long, drawn-out "Wall-eeee!" and hugs Nel.

Then there is Wynand Claasens, 22, who suffered severe brain damage five years ago when he was assaulted outside his school. A series of subsequent strokes left him wheelchair-bound, depressed and aggressive. He used to be a long-distance runner. Nel gave him Stilnox for the first time in early July this year. "I was struggling to walk, my left eye was hanging lower and was smaller than my right eye, I was feeling very angry, I had pains in my knees and I was having trouble going to the toilet," Wynand says. "Now I'm walking with one stick, my face has evened up, I can go to the toilet when I'm ready and the pain in my knees has gone. I take one 10mg tablet each night and I feel about 60% better."

The list goes on. Heidi Greven, who is now 21, was starved of oxygen to her brain at birth. Her mother, Babs, says she used to sit in silence, locked inside her own head, never communicating and looking terribly unhappy. When I meet Heidi, she is walking around, curious about everything. She examines the shorthand in my notebook. Although too shy to speak (she will always be brain damaged), she jokes with Nel. At home, she now chats with her parents.

"I'll never forget the first time she was given the medication," says Babs. "It was in July 2002. After 10 to 15 minutes it was like a curtain being lifted from her eyes. I couldn't believe it. She suddenly started looking around and fiddling with magazines. Then she went outside the door and looked into the other rooms in the surgery. She found a portable radio and put it up to her shoulder and began listening to it. Beforehand, she would just sit there doing nothing.

"That was a Saturday. When she went to [a special] school on the Monday, her teacher sent a note home asking what we had done to make Heidi come alive."

There are others, too: Paul Ras, a 69-year-old runner who suffered brain damage after a traffic accident. Now he is convinced zolpidem is responsible for a recovery that allows him to run races up to 50km - with only one hip.

And Theo van Rensburg, a 43-year-old lawyer who suffered severe brain injuries in a car crash in 1991. He also suffered a stroke while in a coma for three months. He took Stilnox in 1999 and reported an improvement in balance, co-ordination, speech and hearing.

"I go horse-riding now," he says. He still has difficulty speaking, but I can understand him. "It's really good for my balance."

Finally, I meet 22-year-old Janli de Koch, whose eyesight was damaged in a car accident in Switzerland in December 2004. The injury resulted in a restriction of her visual field to two corners of her eyes; she cannot see below a certain point, so that she bumps into things and falls over. Last month, she was prescribed zolpidem and now says she can already see more than she used to. She hopes the improvements will continue.

In 1969 the neurologist Dr Oliver Sacks used the then new drug L-Dopa to awaken a group of catatonic patients who had survived the 1917-1928 epidemic of the mysterious "sleeping disease", known as encephalitis lethargica. The 1990 film Awakenings chronicles Sacks' delight at his patients' progress and his despair when the medication stops working and they slip back into a catatonic state. The hope with zolpidem is that the improvements will continue and there will be no regression. In the patients who have used the medication longest - such as Louis Viljoen and Theo van Rensburg - the signs are that progress continues. But time will tell.

Perhaps the last word should go to Pat Flores, the mother of George Melendez, the 31-year-old coma patient who reassured his parents that he wasn't in pain after taking Ambien, as zolpidem is known in the US. He was starved of oxygen when his car overturned and he landed face down in a garden pond near his home in Houston, Texas, in 1998. "The doctors said he was clinically dead - one said he was a vegetable," says Pat. "After three weeks he suffered multi-organ failure and they said his body would ultimately succumb. They said he would never regain consciousness."

He survived and four years later, while visiting a clinic, Pat gave him a sleeping pill because his constant moaning was keeping her and her husband, Del, awake in their shared hotel room. "After 10 to 15 minutes I noticed there was no sound and I looked over," she recalls. "Instead of finding him asleep, there he was, wide awake, looking at his surroundings. I said, 'George', and he said, 'What?' We sat up for two hours asking him questions and he answered all of them. His improvements have continued and we talk every day. He has a terrific sense of humour and he carries on running jokes from the day before.

"It is difficult to describe how it feels to get someone back who you were told you had lost for ever. There is a bond that has been restored and it validates our absolute belief that all along George was locked inside there somewhere. It tells us that we were right and the doctors were wrong. George, and his personality, were in there the whole time".

What is persistent vegetative state?

Though it sounds unkind to refer to a human in such terms, even medical dictionaries define persistent vegetative state (PVS) as the condition of living like a vegetable: in other words, existing without consciousness or the ability to initiate voluntary action. Though people in this state may occasionally give the impression of being awake and sentient, making random movements and opening their eyes and even appearing to smile or cry, they are unable to respond to communication or demonstrate awareness of their environment. This is different from an ordinary coma, in which the patient's eyes are closed, and which rarely last more than four weeks. The other key difference is that a person in a coma hasn't necessarily lost all cognitive function (ie, brain power); they are just temporarily unable to access it. If they recover - and many do - they may have cognition afterwards.

PVS is the result of irreparable damage to the cerebral cortex - the "thinking, feeling" part of the brain - but it is not to be confused with brain death. And while the "persistent" bit in the title indicates that the condition, unlike coma, is generally deemed permanent, there are intermittent reports of "recoveries". Last week, it was reported that a 23-year-old woman who has been in a vegetative state since suffering devastating brain damage in a traffic accident was suddenly able to understand speech. And in 2003 an Arkansas man, Terry Wallis, returned to consciousness 19 years after he was injured in a car accident, stunning his mother by saying "Mom" and then asking for a drink of fizzy pop. Such breakthroughs are controversial, in both medical and legal circles. The British Medical Association, for example, currently deems such miraculous events not as recoveries from PVS, but as an indicator of an earlier misdiagnosis.

Because legal systems do not generally equate PVS with death, and diagnosis is difficult, there have been several famous court cases involving people in this condition. The most high-profile centred on Terri Schiavo, a 26-year-old Florida woman who went into a PVS after collapsing and suffering a heart attack in 1990. In 1998 her husband, Michael Schiavo, petitioned for her gastric feeding tube to be removed; her parents did not believe the diagnosis and took the case to court to prevent medical care being withdrawn. Ultimately, the court challenges were unsuccessful and in 2005 Schiavo's feeding tube was removed, leading to her death.

There is no treatment for PVS. Instead, the medical team concentrate on preventing infections and maintaining the patient's physical state as much as possible. The most common cause of death for a person in a vegetative state is infection such as pneumonia. For most such patients, life expectancy ranges from two to five years; survival beyond 10 years is unusual.
Helen Pidd

Source

LHC results put supersymmetry theory 'on the spot'

LHC results put supersymmetry theory 'on the spot'

Supersymmetry
Supersymmetry predicts the existence of mysterious super particles.

Results from the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) have all but killed the simplest version of an enticing theory of sub-atomic physics.

Researchers failed to find evidence of so-called "supersymmetric" particles, which many physicists had hoped would plug holes in the current theory.

Theorists working in the field have told BBC News that they may have to come up with a completely new idea.

Data were presented at the Lepton Photon science meeting in Mumbai.

They come from the LHC Beauty (LHCb) experiment, one of the four main detectors situated around the collider ring at the European Organisation for Nuclear Research (Cern) on the Swiss-French border.

According to Dr Tara Shears of Liverpool University, a spokesman for the LHCb experiment: "It does rather put supersymmetry on the spot".

Start Quote

There's a certain amount of worry that's creeping into our discussions”

Dr Joseph Lykken Fermilab

The experiment looked at the decay of particles called "B-mesons" in hitherto unprecedented detail.

If supersymmetric particles exist, B-mesons ought to decay far more often than if they do not exist.

There also ought to be a greater difference in the way matter and antimatter versions of these particles decay.

The results had been eagerly awaited following hints from earlier results, most notably from the Tevatron particle accelerator in the US, that the decay of B-mesons was influenced by supersymmetric particles.

LHCb's more detailed analysis however has failed to find this effect.

Bitten the dust

This failure to find indirect evidence of supersymmetry, coupled with the fact that two of the collider's other main experiments have not yet detected supersymmetic particles, means that the simplest version of the theory has in effect bitten the dust.

Lead ion collisions Collisions inside the LHC should have found some evidence of Supersymmetry by now

The theory of supersymmetry in its simplest form is that as well as the subatomic particles we know about, there are "super-particles" that are similar, but have slightly different characteristics.

The theory, which was developed 20 years ago, can help to explain why there is more material in the Universe than we can detect - so-called "dark matter".

According to Professor Jordan Nash of Imperial College London, who is working on one of the LHC's experiments, researchers could have seen some evidence of supersymmetry by now.

"The fact that we haven't seen any evidence of it tells us that either our understanding of it is incomplete, or it's a little different to what we thought - or maybe it doesn't exist at all," he said.

Disappointed

The timing of the announcement could not be worse for advocates of supersymmetry, who begin their annual international meeting at Fermilab, near Chicago, this weekend.

Start Quote

Supersymmetry... has got symmetry and its super - but there's no experimental data to say it is correct”

Professor George Smoot Nobel Laureate

Dr Joseph Lykken of Fermilab, who is among the conference organisers, says he and others working in the field are "disappointed" by the results - or rather, the lack of them.

"There's a certain amount of worry that's creeping into our discussions," he told BBC News.

The worry is that the basic idea of supersymmetry might be wrong.

"It's a beautiful idea. It explains dark matter, it explains the Higgs boson, it explains some aspects of cosmology; but that doesn't mean it's right.

"It could be that this whole framework has some fundamental flaws and we have to start over again and figure out a new direction," he said.

Down the drain

Experimental physicists working at the LHC, such as Professor Nash, say the results are forcing their theoretical colleagues to think again.

"For the last 20 years or so, theorists have been a step ahead in that they've had ideas and said 'now you need to go and look for it'.

"Now we've done that, and they need to go scratch their heads," he said.

That is not to say that it is all over for supersymmetry. There are many other, albeit more complex, versions of the theory that have not been ruled out by the LHC results.

These more complex versions suggest that super-particles might be harder to find and could take years to detect.

Some old ideas that emerged around the same time as supersymmetry are being resurrected now there is a prospect that supersymmetry may be on the wane.

Source

One has the whimsical name of "Technicolor".

According to Dr Lykken, some younger theoretical physicists are beginning to develop completely novel ideas because they believe supersymmetry to be "old hat" .

"Young theorists especially would love to see supersymmetry go down the drain, because it means that the real thing is something they could invent - not something that was invented by the older generation," he said.

And the new generation has the backing of an old hand - Professor George Smoot, Nobel prizewinner for his work on the cosmic microwave background and one of the world's most respected physicists.

"Supersymmetry is an extremely beautiful model," he said.

"It's got symmetry, it's super and it's been taught in Europe for decades as the correct model because it is so beautiful; but there's no experimental data to say that it is correct."

Subterranean Amazon river 'is not a river'

Subterranean Amazon river 'is not a river'

Underground river
The underground flow is nothing like those sometimes found in caves

A subterranean river said to be flowing beneath the Amazon region of Brazil is not a river in the conventional sense, even if its existence is confirmed.

The "river" has been widely reported, after a study on it was presented to a Brazilian science meeting last week.

But the researchers involved told BBC News that water was moving through porous rock at speeds measured in cm, or inches, per year - not flowing.

Another Brazilian expert said the groundwater was known to be very salty.

Valiya Hamza and Elizabeth Tavares Pimentel, from the Brazilian National Observatory, deduced the existence of the "river" by using temperature data from boreholes across the Amazon region.

The holes were dug by the Brazilian oil company Petrobras in the search for new oil and gas fields, and Petrobras has since released its data to the scientific community.

Using mathematical models relating temperature differences to water movement, the scientists inferred that water must be moving downwards through the ground around the holes, and then flowing horizontally at a depth of several km.

Start Quote

The word 'river' should be burned from the work - it's not a river whatsoever”

Jorge Figueiredo Petrobras geologist

They concluded that this movement had to be from West to East, mimicking the mighty Amazon itself.

A true underground river on this scale - 6,000km (4,000 miles) long - would be the longest of its kind in the world by far.

But Professor Hamza told BBC News that it was not a river in the conventional sense.

"We have used the term 'river' in a more generic sense than the popular notion," he said.

In the Amazon, he said, water was transported by three kinds of "river" - the Amazon itself, as water vapour in atmospheric circulation, and as moving groundwater.

"According to the lithologic sequences representative of Amazon [underground sedimentary] basins, the medium is permeable and the flow is through pores... we assume that the medium has enough permeability to allow for significant subsurface flows."

Glacial progress

The total calculated volume of the flow - about 4,000 cubic metres per second - is significant, although just a few percent of the amount of water transported by the Amazon proper.

Amazon mouth The underground flow could be confirmed with coastal measurements, scientists suggest

But the speed of movement is even slower than glaciers usually display, never mind rivers, not rivers.

And whether water really is transported right across the region in this way is disputed by Jorge Figueiredo, a geologist with Petrobras.

"First of all, the word 'river' should be burned from the work - it's not a river whatsoever," he told BBC News.

Water and other fluids could indeed flow through the porous sedimentary rock, he said, but would be unlikely to reach the Atlantic Ocean because the sedimentary basins containing the porous rock were separated by older rock deposits that would form an impermeable barrier.

"But the main problem is that at depths of 4,000m, there is no possibility that we have fresh water - we have direct data that this water is saline," said Dr Figueiredo.

"My colleagues and I think this work is very arguable - we have a high level of criticism."

End of the affair?

Press reports suggested Professor Hamza was optimistic about confirming his results over the next few years using more direct methods.

But, he said, this was not the case.

"It is well known that geothermal methods are better suited for determining flows with [such small] velocities," he said.

"At lower velocities, experimental techniques may pose considerable difficulties."

It may be possible to examine directly sediments transported into the Atlantic by the subterranean flow, he said, noting that a zone of relatively fresh water extends into the ocean near the mouth of the Amazon.

The research - Indications of an Underground "River" beneath the Amazon River: Inferences from Results of Geothermal Studies - was presented at the 12th International Congress of the Brazilian Geophysical Society in Rio de Janeiro, and has not been published in a peer-reviewed scientific journal.

The team has named the underground flow the "Hamza River".

Source

Friday, August 26, 2011

Is Pay Per Channel Cable TV Inevitable? By Brad Tuttle

Is Pay Per Channel Cable TV Inevitable?

Most consumers like the idea of pay per channel cable TV, in which the customer would select a la carte the channels he actually watches, rather than pay for a bundled service with dozens, sometimes hundreds, of channels that are quickly skipped past with the clicker. Cable providers obviously prefer selling channels in bundles, ensuring a steady and sizeable amount is paid by each customer, each and every month. At some point, though, it looks like the cable companies will begrudgingly have to give consumers what they want.

Why pay for services you don’t want, and don’t use? In terms of cable or satellite TV, the answer is that there really has never been an option to pay strictly for the services—meaning channels—you do want, and do use.

The concept of a la carte or pay per channel cable is not new. The FCC and several prominent government officials were trying to push the cable companies to offer channels a la carte in the mid-’00s, and the topic has been regularly revisited by the likes of Wired.

What with record numbers of subscribers canceling cable and satellite TV service, surveys showing that 77% of young people would live without TV before they’d live without the Internet, and consumers who are increasingly accustomed to picking and choosing exactly what they want and nothing more—buying one MP3 rather than a whole album—the concept isn’t going away anytime soon. You don’t have to be the savviest of consumers to understand that when you only want a Big Mac, buying a “value” meal with fries and a drink isn’t much of a value.

(MORE: Big Cable Isn’t Scared of Netflix, or That People Are Too Poor to Pay Monthly Bills)

David Lazarus’s column in the Los Angeles Times makes the case that pay per channel cable would not only be welcomed by consumers, but that it could be the only means for cable providers to save their business before the Internet takes over in entirety:

Before cable providers give themselves over to becoming little more than turbocharged Internet service providers, there’s an opportunity to remake themselves in the iTunes mold and give video subscribers exactly what they want.

That is, cable companies could charge people for only the channels they watch, rather than the hundreds that they don’t.

From the consumer standpoint, this sounds great. The FCC has estimated that the average cable customer would save 13% with an a la carte model.

Not everyone agrees with this assessment, though. Surely, price-per-channel costs would rise under an a la carte system, just like at the restaurant where you’ll pay less per item at the buffet than you would by ordering off the menu a la carte. Some critics of the pay per channel concept say, however, that few, if any, customers would see any savings. The New Yorker’s James Surowiecki, for one, envisions the scenario playing out this way:

The prices for individual channels would soar, and the providers, who wouldn’t be facing any more competition than before, would tweak prices, perhaps on a customer-by-customer basis, to maintain their revenue. That doesn’t necessarily mean that Bravo would suddenly cost fifteen dollars a month, but there’s little evidence to suggest that à-la-carte packages would be generally cheaper than the current bundles.

Well, certainly it’d be cheaper for some customers. Even if the price per channel increases in an a la carte system, most consumers would still welcome having the power to decide just how much each channel is worth to them. There wouldn’t seem to be any reason why customers couldn’t still also have the option of going with any of the current bundled package of channels if they feel a la carte isn’t right for them. Or perhaps the cable providers could offer some sort of escalating discount for a la carte customers, with savings of 10% or 20% when more than 20 or 30 channels are selected.

(MORE: Like It or Not, This Is the Year You’re Supposed to Upgrade to a 3-D TV)

Lazarus suggests this possibility:

How about offering a base plan of, say, 30 or 40 cable and local channels, and then allow subscribers to add additional channels on an a la carte basis?

In any event, cable TV would certainly seem like a better value if the customer actually had more genuine choices than the current options, which basically amount to selecting among bundles in small, medium, and large varieties. If cable companies seek to attract new customers and stop current ones from canceling, simply sticking with the status quo—throwing five Spanish-language channels, three home-shopping networks, and a couple of religious channels at customers who have no interest in any of this programming—doesn’t seem like a wise choice.

How Consumers Fool Themselves Into Thinking They’ve Made Good Purchases By Brad Tuttle

How Consumers Fool Themselves Into Thinking They’ve Made Good Purchases


If you think you make purchases because you logically and objectively evaluate the options at hand, then decide based strictly on your personal preferences and individual sense of value, think again. Here are four examples of how consumers make purchasing decisions in highly irrational, sometimes completely nonsensical ways.

Our preferences are shaped by the masses. Food tastes good (or bad) based on the sensations it causes in your mouth and belly, right? To some extent, absolutely. But marketing experts know that consumer preferences are also shaped based on the taste of our peers, and on social norms and cultural trends. This goes for most consumer choices, including fashion, technology, cars—and yes, even food.

A recent Washington Post column uses the example of clam chowder, which was briny and thin throughout New England decades ago, and which is now almost uniformly super thick—and, some detractors say, as tasty as Elmer’s glue. What happened? At some point, restaurateurs got in the habit of adding flour to make chowder thicker and thicker, and now this is what consumers have come to expect constitutes a bowl of “authentic” clam chowder. If a diner ordered clam chowder today and received a bowl filled with the thinner version commonly served a generation ago, it wouldn’t match one’s expectations, and therefore probably wouldn’t taste “good.”

Sometimes, it’s hard to figure out whether companies try to make products that suit the preferences of consumers, or whether consumer preferences are shaped by the products made by companies. Consumer preferences can and do change: For example, it was assumed that Americans liked weak coffee—and then along came Starbucks. Consumers had assumed wine served in screw-top bottles was inferior—until suddenly they were so ubiquitous and acceptable (and easier to open) that many wine lovers came to prefer them.

The point is that individual consumer preferences are often shaped not entirely by the individual, but by the collective preferences of the masses, and by the status quo in the marketplace. Despite the overwhelming number of products on store shelves, and despite how the typical consumer would say he likes having as many options as possible, consumer preferences are often shaped by conformity. As a result, it’s common for competing products to be remarkable similar to one another, as one expect told the Washington Post:

“There are huge incentives in consumer markets even for competing companies to make everything the same,” says Dan McGinn, president of the McGinn Group, a research and strategy consultancy in Arlington.

A New Yorker story about the edible insect trend, meanwhile, delves into how consumer taste is shaped simply by the local expectations and norms:

Food preferences are highly local, often irrational, and defining: a Frenchman is a frog because he considers their legs food and the person who calls him one does not. In Santa María Atzompa, a community in Oaxaca where grasshoppers toasted with garlic, chile, and lime are a favorite treat, locals have traditionally found shrimp repulsive. “They would say ‘some people’ eat it, meaning ‘the coastal people,’ ” Ramona Pérez, an anthropologist at San Diego State University, says. When she made scampi for a family there, she told me, they were appalled; the mother, who usually cooked with her, refused to help, and the daughters wouldn’t eat. The coast is less than a hundred miles away.

(MORE: Edible Insects: The Creepy Crawly Miracle Food)

We assume higher price equates to better quality. While many retailers have gotten in the habit of marking prices down to attract shoppers in recent years, a New York Times story pointed out that luxury goods stores have been succeeding lately at least partially because they have rarely if ever been discounting merchandise. The customer these stores aim to attract is one who would probably think: If that suit or handbag is on sale or had to be marked down, it must be out of fashion, or not be that good quality. As the story sums up:

Part of the demand is also driven by the snob factor: at luxury stores, higher prices are often considered a mark of quality.

Of course, higher prices aren’t necessarily a mark of better quality. They’re just numbers that retailers place on shoes and belts. They’re numbers that retailers hope consumers never question. What an item is “worth,” on the other hand, is an entirely subjective matter determined by the consumer who eagerly snatches the item up or walks away, thinking “What a rip-off!”

(MORE: 10 U.S. Retailers Thriving During Tough Times)

We shy away from cheaper options for no good reason. In the same way that some consumers choose items mainly because they’re expensive, others equate cheap (as in: price) with cheap (as in: poor quality). A forthcoming study in the Journal of Marketing Research authored by Columbia Business School professor Sheena Iyengar and others show that consumers often steer clear of less expensive options when good quality is highly important for the purchase at hand. (Specifically, the researchers use dark chocolate and wine as examples.)

This makes sense of course—if you’re aiming for top quality, why not go with the best—but what makes less sense is that the range of choices had a large influence on the purchasing decisions of participants in the experiments. One group was shown five chocolates, the other 21, and the chocolates were supposedly arranged in order of quality rating. Participants were then asked how much they’d pay for a high-quality chocolate from the selection at hand. The consumers shown 21 chocolates were prepared to pay 40% more than the folks shown just five chocolates.

In another experiment, participants were asked to select among three different price groupings of Sauvignon Blancs: cheap, average, and expensive. Without tasting anything, only 25% of participants selected a wine in the least expensive category. Why? Perhaps because they’ve disliked cheaper white wines they’ve had in the past. But let’s be honest: It’s probably because few people want to look cheap. Restaurants know this well, and that’s why the second-cheapest bottle on a wine list often has the biggest markup.

(MORE: 4 Weird Academic Studies on Economics and Consumer Behavior)

Dumb marketing tricks still do the trick. There’s no shortage of ways retailers manipulate consumers into buying stuff they don’t want and paying more than they need to. A Consumerist post pointed out one of the oldest and most common tricks, which must still work because you see it everywhere you shop. We speak of the bizarre power of numbers ending in a 9:

A national woman’s clothing catalog tried something out a few year ago. With one group of customers, they took one of their dresses and raised the price from $34 to to $39. Sales shot up 25%. With the second group of customers, they raised the price from $34 to $44. There was no change in demand.

The other old pricing trick with a 9 involves listing an item ending in .99—a T-shirt for $9.99, so that the customer reads it as $9 rather than what it really is: a penny shy of $10. But you’re too smart to fall for that, right?

Scientists discover massive underground river 13,000 feet beneath the Amazon

Scientists discover massive underground river 13,000 feet beneath the Amazon

Researchers at Brazil's National Observatory have discovered evidence of a massive underground river flowing deep beneath the Amazon River, reports the AFP.

Presenting this week at the 12th International Congress of the Brazilian Geophysical Society in Rio de Janeiro, Elizabeth Tavares Pimentel reported the existence of a 6,000-kilometer-long (3,700-mile) river flowing some 4,000 meters (13,000 feet) under the Amazon.

Like the Amazon, the river flows west to east, but is considerably wider (200-400 kilometers) and moves at only a fraction of the speed of the giant surface river. The hidden river — dubbed the Hamza after Pimentel's supervisor Valiya Hamza — discharges into the Atlantic deep underground.

"It is likely that this river is responsible for the low level of salinity in the waters around the mouth of the Amazon," said a statement released by the National Observatory.

"The Amazon region has two discharge fluid systems: the surface drainage [through] the Amazon River... and the flow of groundwater through the deep sedimentary layers."


Pimentel's research is based on analysis of 241 oil wells drilled by state oil company Petrobras in the 1970s and 1980s. The study area covers the sedimentary basins of Acre, Solimões, Amazonas, Marajó and Barreirinhas.

The Amazon is Earth's largest river — every day up to 17 billion metric tons of water flow into the Atlantic Ocean. For reference, the Amazon discharges enough fresh water daily into the Atlantic to supply New York City’s freshwater needs for nine years. The force of the current causes Amazon River water to continue flowing 125 miles out to sea before mixing with Atlantic salt water. Early sailors could drink fresh water out of the ocean before sighting the South American continent.

Hurricane Irene: Obama warns of 'historic' storm

Hurricane Irene: Obama warns of 'historic' storm

ABC reporter Steve Osunsami flew deep into the eye of Hurricane Irene


Related Stories

President Barack Obama has warned that Hurricane Irene, currently looming off the east coast of the US, could be a "historic" storm.

Seven states from North Carolina to Connecticut have declared emergencies ahead of Irene's arrival.

Mandatory evacuations have been ordered in parts of four states, and in low-lying areas of New York City.

The category two storm has weakened a little and is expected to make landfall with winds of up to 100mph (155km/h).

Irene, which has already caused havoc in the Caribbean, is expected to hit the coast of North Carolina on Saturday before barrelling northwards to Washington and New York City a day later.

'Don't delay'

At 14:00 EDT on Friday (18:00 GMT), the storm was 300 miles south-south-west of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, the US National Hurricane Center said.

#Irene Twitter updates

Mr Obama, on holiday in Martha's vineyard, an island on the Massachusetts coast, said in a statement to reporters: "I cannot stress this highly enough: if you are in the projected path of this hurricane, you have to take precautions now.

"Don't wait, don't delay. We all hope for the best, but we have to be prepared for the worst. All of us have to take this storm seriously."

He added: "All indications point to this being a historic hurricane."

The White House later said Mr Obama was returning a day early from his break to Washington to lead the government's response to the storm.

NY subway to shut

Irene, the first hurricane of the Atlantic season, could affect up to 65 million people in major cities along the east coast from Washington to Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York and Boston - the most densely populated corridor in America.

President Obama: "If you're in the way of this hurricane you should be preparing now"

"We're going to have damages, we just don't know how bad," Craig Fugate, head of the US Federal Emergency Management Agency, told the Associated Press news agency.

"This is one of the largest populations that will be impacted by one storm at one time."

If it hits New York and New England at category two, it will be the region's strongest storm since Hurricane Bob glanced off Massachusetts in 1991, and Hurricane Gloria, which caused extensive damage to New York City in 1985.

Irene boasts hurricane force winds extending 90 miles from its centre, and tropical storm winds reaching up to 290 miles from the eye.

The American Red Cross said it was preparing dozens of emergency shelters along the east coast.

States of emergency have been declared in North Carolina, Maryland, Virginia, Delaware, New Jersey, New York and Connecticut.

Mandatory evacuations have been ordered in parts of Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, North Carolina and in the nation's biggest city, New York.

New York Governor Andrew Cuomo said the state's transport network, including the New York City subway, would close from midday on Saturday.

New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg issues 'mandatory' evacuation order

In Washington DC, Sunday's dedication of the new memorial for Martin Luther King Jr - which President Obama had been expected to attend - has been postponed until at least September.

The power company serving the Washington area advised of "potential widespread power outages" at the weekend.

Amtrak, America's passenger rail service, announced it was cancelling train travel south of Washington on the east coast, and airlines predicted widespread disruptions to flights.

Tropical storm-force winds have already begun buffeting North Carolina's coast.

More than 200,000 people are evacuating from coastal parts of the state, while residents hoping to ride out the storm are stocking up on food, water and fuel.

US authorities are warning of dangerous storm-surge seas, high waves and rip-tide currents up the east coast as far as Maryland's Eastern Shore.

In Virginia, the US Navy has ordered its Second Fleet to leave Norfolk Naval Station in Virginia to head out to sea to avert damage to the vessels in port.

new map





I have family in Virginia and New York, and I wish all of them well. I hope this isn't anything like Hurricane Katrina.

My wishes go out to everyone.

Thursday, August 25, 2011

Six lessons Japan can teach the West

If you are living in the U.S. or Western Europe and feeling pretty bad about the miserable state of the recovery, political paralysis, and growing unease about your country's future, remember things could be worse. You could be in Japan.

Japan has been experiencing those same woes for the past 20 years. And there is no end in sight. Prime Minister Naoto Kan announced his resignation on Friday after a mere 14 months in office. His replacement will be the third PM since the Democratic Party of Japan won its historic electoral victory two years ago. Kan leaves behind an economy that has contracted for three consecutive quarters. Yes, part of the reason is the devastating earthquake and tsunami that slammed into Japan in March. But a bigger reason is the continued failure of Japan's political leaders to tackle the economy's deepest problems. Kan had a few good ideas – reforming the distorted agricultural sector, for example, or connecting even more to a thriving Asia – but in the end he achieved little. Japanese politics just doesn't seem to allow for any new ideas ever becoming actual policy.

As the U.S. and Europe find themselves in a protracted downturn of their own, while their political leadership bickers, dawdles and vacations, more and more voices have started asking if the West is entering an endless, Japanese-style economic funk. HSBC's chief economist Stephen King made that point in a report this week:

We have consistently taken the view that the Western world was suffering from ‘Japan-lite' problems: weak money supply growth, high levels of debt, lots of deleveraging, structurally weak growth and a rapidly deteriorating fiscal position. Given recent economic developments, perhaps ‘lite' should be replaced with ‘heavy'…The West is increasingly looking like a bad version of Japan. And, like Japan, our political leaders are offering few answers.

I asked a few weeks ago in this column if America was facing a Japanese future. My answer then was no – mainly because of the strength of the U.S. corporate sector, something missing from Japan after its 1990s financial crisis. But as the U.S. continues to drift, it will become harder and harder to avoid a Japanese fate. Japan has some important lessons to offer the West, on how to avoid getting into a long-term economic decline, and why it can so hard to get out of one.

First, don't count on monetary policy to solve all your economic problems. With all eyes waiting for the Fed's Ben Bernanke to ride in on his white horse (by the name of “quantitative easing”) and save the recovery, Japan's experience is extremely telling. Japan shows there are clear limits to what central bankers and monetary policy can do to turn around economies in trouble. Japan has relied on low interest rates to jumpstart its flailing economy for well over a decade, with little meaningful impact. The Bank of Japan's key rate was at zero almost continuously between 1999 and 2006, and it's back down in that neighborhood today. And yet those rock-bottom rates have never done much to repair Japanese growth prospects. Why? Japan's busted bubble economy left banks gutted and companies with too much debt and capacity. No one had any incentive to borrow or lend, no matter how low interest rates became. The problem in Japan has not been the availability of money, but the demand for it. The U.S. may be facing a similar problem today. With consumers deleveraging, unemployment high and growth slow, the real economy isn't providing opportunities for companies to borrow and invest. When the problem isn't money, then more money can't solve the problem.

Secondly, realize economic problems can be structural, not just cyclical. One reason the Japanese relied so heavily on monetary tools to fix their economy was because of their unwillingness to acknowledge their economic problems weren't cyclical. Policymakers thought a bit more cash in the system, or some more fiscal spending, would finally return Japan to the good old days. The reason this never worked is that the government never admitted, let alone addressed, the serious structural problems that have been obstacles to growth. Overbearing bureaucrats and excessive regulation has stymied entrepreneurship and competition, hurting the efficiency of the domestic corporate sector. Inflexible labor markets have created an underclass of young workers without benefits, job-training or security. Without fixing such underlying structural problems, the economy can't return to health, no matter how much Japanese politicians spend. The end result is a stagnant economy with a dangerously indebted government. The U.S. and Europe could be looking at the same. Fiscal and monetary stimulus won't work unless the real issues of the economy are confronted. In the U.S., for example, that means a smarter workout in the housing market, extensive job retraining for the unemployed, and a large-scale improvement in infrastructure. Otherwise, the U.S., like Japan, will end up with meager growth and a government paralyzed by debt.

Third, fix your banks – quickly. One of Japan's biggest failings was waiting a half-decade to begin restructuring its banking sector after its financial crisis. And then the problem was tackled only slowly. Though the U.S. has done a better job on this score, Europe has not. At the core of the euro zone's problems are undercapitalized banks, and the unwillingness of Europe's politicians to really deal with them. The Europe-wide “stress tests” used to measure the health of the sector have bordered on being a joke. Without stronger banks, you can't have stronger growth. Nor can Europe resolve its sovereign debt crisis. Waiting, as in Japan, will only make matters worse.

Fourth, understand that past performance doesn't ensure future performance. One of Japan's biggest problems has been its refusal to admit that its old economic model failed. During the 1960s, 70s and 80s, Japan was the darling of the global economy, the China before China. Yet that model – government-led, export-dependent, manufacturing-focused – fell out of touch with the times as Japan didn't adapt to the changing global economy. To this day, Japan is still wedded to its old ways, despite 20 years of evidence they no longer work. The West is under risk of the same mental paralysis. The Europeans are so attached to their welfare-state system that they can't imagine reforming it. The U.S. is so devoted to its own version of the free market that it has become ideologically resistant to finding new solutions to new problems. Washington isn't building infrastructure due to an ideological predisposition against the worth of government investment. Income inequality continues to grow because of an inability to reform corporate and tax systems to recognize the new realities facing the American workforce. The scariest part of the sad story of Japan is its denial of the need for change. Hopefully the West won't make the same mistake.

Fifth, don't fear globalization. Embrace it. While the rest of Asia has become more and more integrated, Japan has somewhat stood aside. Yes, its most vibrant economic sectors are those that are connected to supply chains feeding the Asian manufacturing machine. But fears about the potential negative impact of liberalization on special interest groups (like farmers), Japan has kept its economy generally resistant to foreign investment and foreign influence. The result is that Japan gets hurt by globalization – in the form of a “hollowing out” of industry to low-cost countries – without enjoying the benefits – lower costs to spur consumer spending, foreign investment-created jobs. The U.S., with its growing anti-trade mentality, runs the risk of falling into the same trap. The answer to the West's economic problems is capitalizing on the opportunities generated by globalization, not retreating from them.

Sixth, don't put off until tomorrow what you can do today. The danger of the political gridlock gripping the U.S. and Europe right now is that it will delay the decisions that ultimately need to get made, making the cost of reform more painful and limiting the flexibility governments have to implement it. That's the truly most tragic part of Japan's story. Japan's political leaders, beholden to special interests, have missed opportunity after opportunity to change the course of Japan's future. Now, with government debt at 200% of GDP, its options are more constrained than ever. As the recent debt-ceiling fiasco in the U.S. shows all too clearly, Washington is, like Japan, kicking the can down an uncertain road, allowing political divisions to undercut what the country badly needs. Ditto in the euro zone. As German Chancellor Angela Merkel caters to political interests back home, the monetary union comes under ever greater strain. What Japan's example shows is the importance of political will.

Without it, we'll all be turning Japanese.

Amazing Steve Jobs Quotes - Visionary of our Time

YouTube

Picsource=YouTube

On Design:

"Design is a funny word. Some people think design means how it looks. But of course, if you dig deeper, it's really how it works."

On iTunes:

"This will go down in history as a turning point for the music industry. This is landmark stuff. I can't overestimate it!"

To John Sculley (of PepsiCo):

"Do you want to sell sugar water for the rest of your life or do you want to come with me and change the world?"

On Bicycles:

"What a computer is to me is, it's the most remarkable tool that we've ever come up with, and it's the equivalent of a bicycle for our minds."

On the Internet:

"The most compelling reason for most people to buy a computer for the home will be to link it to a nationwide communications network. We’re just in the beginning stages of what will be a truly remarkable breakthrough for most people—as remarkable as the telephone."

—Jobs in his prescient February 1, 1985 interview

On Dogma:

"Your time is limited, so don't waste it living someone else's life. Don't be trapped by dogma—which is living with the results of other people's thinking."

On Dying:

"Remembering that you are going to die is the best way I know to avoid the trap of thinking you have something to lose. You are already naked. There is no reason not to follow your heart.

On Living:

"There's an old Hindu saying that comes into my mind occasionally: "For the first 30 years of your life, you make your habits. For the last 30 years of your life, your habits make you." As I'm going to be 30 in February, the thought has crossed my mind."



Source

Chinese Flock to Free Lectures on Happiness, Justice

PHILIPPE LOPEZ / AFP / Getty Images

When NetEase, one of China's most popular Internet portals, started offering Open University–style lectures in English last October, it expected eager Chinese netizens to flock to seminars like Web 2.0 Marketing Communications and Introduction to Robotics. They flocked, but not to those classes. Instead, two more-contemplative courses — one on happiness, the other on justice — trumped all others. "We never imagined that the most successful topics would be those to do with people's hearts and minds," says NetEase's Yang Jing.

About 3 million people have already watched the course on the concept of justice, led by Harvard philosopher Michael Sandel, author of Justice: What's the Right Thing to Do? In his lectures, Sandel aims to challenge ingrained ideas of ethics by debating questions such as whether it is fair for a store to increase the price of water after a natural disaster, or whether it is right to lie to protect a family member. (See pictures of China celebrating 90 years of communism.)

Sandel believes that the popularity of his course reflects an awakening of ethical reflection and debate in China as the children of the country's boom years reach maturity. "The generation that came of age during China's economic miracle now wants to engage with big questions — about moral responsibility, about justice and injustice, about the meaning of the good life," he says.

China, Sandel argues, is justifiably proud of its impressive economic advances, but "there is also a recognition that rising affluence has brought growing inequality, that GDP alone does not bring happiness, and that markets can't, by themselves, create a just society." When Sandel toured Chinese universities recently, students queued for hours to get a seat in his lectures and he says he was "struck by the hunger, even passion, for discussion of justice, fairness, equality and inequality." (See portraits of Chinese workers.)

Psychologist Tal Ben-Shahar's course on positive psychology, the other unexpected hit on the NetEase site, has enjoyed a similarly fervid reaction. "The need for happiness — for meaning and pleasure — is universal, common to all people," says Ben-Shahar, author of the book Being Happy. "However, what people find meaningful or pleasurable often differs across different cultures."

In China, he notes, the individual focus on finding happiness reflects a societal focus on building a better society. "One of the ideas that I've often heard in my visits to China is the need to create a harmonious society," he says, referencing one of the oft-cited political catchphrases of the Hu Jintao administration. "To my mind, harmony is created by bringing together seemingly opposite forces and ideas. Harmony is about reconciling the ancient and the modern, the spiritual and the scientific, Eastern ideas and Western thought, the collective and the individual."

As China searches for that reconciliation, it's not just foreign proponents of the "good life" whose ideas are finding traction. Yu Dan, a professor at Beijing Normal University, has become a household name across the country on the back of her best-selling series of books explaining the applications of ancient philosophy in modern times. Her most famous book, Confucius from the Heart, aims to show how the often abstruse tenets of Confucianism can be simplified and still provide succor 2,500 years after they were first posited. The book has been a best seller since it was first published in 2007. (See pictures of the making of modern China.)

Like Sandel and Ben-Shahar, Yu believes that China's single-minded focus on economic growth in recent decades is now being tempered by a period of self-reflection and discussion about what the country — and its people — should define as important. "In the 21st century, Chinese people's thinking has undergone a big change," she says. "From the 1990s, people accumulated wealth very quickly, but now they ask themselves, Does satisfaction of being materially well-off mean that you are actually happy?"

"While improvements have been made on a national level, people are now starting to look for individual happiness — and they're looking both in traditional Chinese cultures and in Western cultures," Yu says. For Ben-Shahar, this newfound emphasis on personal awareness in China is not surprising. Some 2,500 years ago, Confucius himself noted that the examined life was the first step toward building a healthy society. "The individual and the group are interconnected, and emphasizing individual development is important for the flourishing of the group," says Ben-Shahar. Or in the words of Confucius:

The ancients who wished to illustrate illustrious virtue throughout the kingdom, first ordered well their own states. Wishing to order well their states, they first regulated their families. Wishing to regulate their families, they first cultivated their persons. Wishing to cultivate their persons, they first rectified their hearts. Wishing to rectify their hearts, they first sought to be sincere in their thoughts. Wishing to be sincere in their thoughts, they first extended to the utmost their knowledge.


Source

~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Commentary

It's hypocritical to think you can fix injustice outside of yourself, without first correcting the injustices within.

To criticize the government or any institution on improper conduct comes ONLY with the responsibility and the strength to regulate one's own conduct and own ethical construct.

Ethics is a sensitive topic that most partake in but few learn from and allow to conform to their normal lives.

Tuesday, August 23, 2011

When algorithms control the world

When algorithms control the world

Globe with binary code
Algorithms are spreading their influence around the globe

Related Stories

If you were expecting some kind warning when computers finally get smarter than us, then think again.

There will be no soothing HAL 9000-type voice informing us that our human services are now surplus to requirements.

In reality, our electronic overlords are already taking control, and they are doing it in a far more subtle way than science fiction would have us believe.

Their weapon of choice - the algorithm.

Behind every smart web service is some even smarter web code. From the web retailers - calculating what books and films we might be interested in, to Facebook's friend finding and image tagging services, to the search engines that guide us around the net.

It is these invisible computations that increasingly control how we interact with our electronic world.

At last month's TEDGlobal conference, algorithm expert Kevin Slavin delivered one of the tech show's most "sit up and take notice" speeches where he warned that the "maths that computers use to decide stuff" was infiltrating every aspect of our lives.

Among the examples he cited were a robo-cleaner that maps out the best way to do housework, and the online trading algorithms that are increasingly controlling Wall Street.

"We are writing these things that we can no longer read," warned Mr Slavin.

"We've rendered something illegible. And we've lost the sense of what's actually happening in this world we've made."

Million-dollar book
Cover of the Making of a Fly The book was briefly one of the world's most expensive

Algorithms may be cleverer than humans but they don't necessarily have our sense of perspective - a failing that became evident when Amazon's price-setting code went to war with itself earlier this year.

"The Making of a Fly" - a book about the molecular biology of a fly from egg to fully-fledged insect - may have been a riveting read but it almost certainly didn't deserve a price tag of $23.6m (£14.3m).

It hit that figure briefly on the site after the algorithms used by Amazon to set and update prices started outbidding each other.

It is a small taste of the chaos that can be caused when code gets smart enough to operate without human intervention, thinks Mr Slavin.

"This is algorithms in conflict without any adult supervision," he said.

As code gets ever more sophisticated it is reaching its tentacles into all aspects of our lives, including our cultural preferences.

The algorithms used by movie rental site Netflix are now responsible for 60% of rentals from the site, as we rely less and less on our own critical faculties and word of mouth and more on what Mr Slavin calls the "physics of culture".

Leading role
Hollywood sign Code is playing its own lead role in Hollywood

British firm Epagogix is taking this concept to its logical conclusion, using algorithms to predict what makes a hit movie.

It takes a bunch of metrics - the script, plot, stars, location - and crunches them all together with the box office takings of similar films to work out how much money it will make.

The system has, according to chief executive Nick Meaney, "helped studios to make decisions about whether to make a movie or not".

In the case of one project - which had been assigned a £180m production cost - the algorithm worked out that it would only take £30m at the box office, meaning it simply wasn't worth making.

For another movie, it worked out that the expensive female lead the studio had earmarked for a film would not yield any more of a return than using a less expensive star.

This rather clinical approach to film-making has irked some who believe it to be at odds with a more creative, organic way that they assume their favourite movies were made.

Mr Meaney is keen to play down the role of algorithms in Hollywood.

"Movies get made for many reasons and it credits us with more influence than we have to say we dictate what films are made.

Start Quote

Our brains rely on the internet for memory ”

Betsy Sparrow Psychologist, Columbia University

"We don't tell them what the plot should be. The studio uses this as valuable business information. We help people make tough decisions, and why not?" he said.

Despite this, the studio Epagogix has worked with for the last five years does not want to be named. It is, says Mr Meaney, a "sensitive" subject.

Secret sauce

If algorithms had a Hollywood-style walk of fame, the first star would have to go to Google.

Its famously secret code has propelled the search giant to its current position as one of the most powerful companies in the world.

No-one would doubt that its system has made searching a whole lot easier, but critics have long asked at what price?

In his book, The Filter Bubble, Eli Pariser questions how far Google's data-crunching algorithm go in harvesting our personal data and shaping the web we see accordingly.

Meanwhile, a recent study by psychologists at Columbia University found that reliance on search engines for answers is actually changing the way humans think.

"Since the advent of search engines, we are reorganising the way we remember things. Our brains rely on the internet for memory in much the same way they rely on the memory of a friend, family member or co-worker," said report author Betsy Sparrow.

Increasingly, she argues, we are knowing where information can be found rather than retaining knowledge itself.

Flash crash
Traders at the New York stock exchange Move over traders, there's a new code in town

In the financial markets, code is increasingly becoming king as complex number-crunching algorithms work out what to buy and what to sell.

Up to 70% of Wall Street trading is now run by so-called black box or algo-trading.

That means, along with the wise guy city traders, banks and brokers now employ thousands of smart guy physicists and mathematicians.

But even machine precision, supported by the human code wizards, doesn't guarantee things will run smoothly.

In the so-called Flash Crash of 2.45 on May 6 2010, a five minute dip in the markets caused momentary chaos.

Start Quote

We are running through the United States with dynamite and rocksaws so an algorithm can close the deal three microseconds faster.”

Kevin Slavin Algorithm expert

A rogue trader was blamed for the 10% Dow Jones index fall but in reality, it was the computer program that the unnamed trader was using that was really to blame.

The algorithm sold 75,000 stocks with a value of £2.6bn in just 20 minutes, causing other super-fast trading algorithms to follow suit.

Just as a bionic limb can extend a human's capability for strength and stamina, the electronic market showed its capacity to exaggerate and accelerate minor blips.

No-one has ever managed to pinpoint exactly what happened, and the market recovered minutes later.

The chaos forced regulators to introduce circuit breakers to halt trades if the machines start misbehaving.

The algorithms of Wall Street may be the cyber-equivalent of the 80s yuppie, but unlike their human counterparts, they don't demand red braces, cigars and champagne. What they want is fast pipes.

Spread Networks has been building one such fibre-optic connection, shaving three microseconds off the 825-mile (1327km) trading journey between Chicago and New York.

Meanwhile, a transatlantic fibre optic link between Nova Scotia in Canada and Somerset in the UK is being built primarily to serve the needs of algorithmic traders and will send shares from London to New York and back in 60 milliseconds.

"We are running through the United States with dynamite and rock saws so an algorithm can close the deal three microseconds faster, all for a communications system that no humans will ever see," said Mr Slavin.

As algorithms spread their influence beyond machines to shape the raw landscape around them, it might be time to work out exactly how much they know and whether we still have time to tame them.

Source