Wednesday, May 11, 2011

Pakistan: Bin Laden death exposes complex militant ties

Pakistan: Bin Laden death exposes complex militant ties

Policemen and paramilitary forces stand at the scene of a suicide bomb blast in Dir, northwest Pakistan April 4, 2011 Militant attacks have killed thousands of people in Pakistan over recent years

The presence of Osama Bin Laden on Pakistani soil has once again raised questions about the links between the country's security establishment and jihadi militants.

It is an issue that has long concerned Western leaders who provide Pakistan with billions of dollars of aid each year and expect, in return, full co-operation in the US war on terror.

In July last year, British Prime Minister David Cameron said that he could not tolerate a situation in which Pakistan was able to "look both ways" so that it could promote the export of terror.

And just last month, US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Adm Mike Mullen went on Pakistani television and openly accused Pakistan's main intelligence agency, the ISI, of having links with a powerful tribal group believed to facilitate the movement of Taliban fighters from Pakistan into Afghanistan.

The ISI, Adm Mullen said, had a "long-standing relationship" with the Haqqani network.

The fact that such senior political and military leaders are openly voicing their suspicions about Pakistan reflects their frustration that a decade into the US war on terror, the Taliban movement in Afghanistan is strong and growing stronger.

'Unmatched record'

The biggest question just now is whether Pakistan knew Osama Bin Laden was living in its country.

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Shaukat Qadir

There is no way Osama Bin Laden could come here without the ISI's knowledge”

Shaukat Qadir Retired brigadier

Many Pakistanis familiar with the way the security establishment works think it is very likely the ISI did know.

"There is no way he could come here without the ISI's knowledge," said retired Brig Shaukat Qadir.

"You see this particular house had been raided... This house has been under suspicion all along."

Others insist that the ISI did not know and argue that its track record of catching militants proves it has no desire to hide them.

Assad Munir, another retired brigadier, was working for military intelligence and the ISI before and after 9/11.

He was based in north-west Pakistan and led the search for al-Qaeda and Taliban leaders.

"We got hold of the maximum people, who went to Guantanamo. I think we got hold of more than 260 people between 2001 and 2003," he said.

"We have the record. I don't think anyone else can match it."

It is a complicated situation and outsiders are often baffled by Pakistan's aggressive attitude towards some militants, and apparent tolerance of others.

Jihadis, after all, are causing havoc in Pakistan. With an average of more than one suicide bombing every week, 35,000 Pakistanis have died since 9/11.

'Countering India'

The key to understanding Pakistani policy is to appreciate the distinctions between different types of militant groups.

Some, such as the Pakistan Taliban, are attacking targets within Pakistan - including security force personnel. The Pakistan army is consequently fighting the Pakistan Taliban hard. It has lost thousands of men in doing so.

Taj Mahal Hotel in Mumbai on November 27, 2008 Pakistani-based militants have been accused of planning the 2008 Mumbai attacks

But other Pakistani-based groups are focused on the war in Afghanistan. Pakistan has long been preparing for an American defeat in Afghanistan and wants to have a good relationship with whatever government takes over once the Americans have left.

For Islamabad, there is a lot at stake.

Pakistan used to think of Afghanistan as a place that gave it strategic depth. A friendly government in Kabul allowed it to concentrate its military forces on the border with India.

Islamabad is highly concerned that Delhi, which has given more than $1bn of aid to Kabul in recent years, is getting a foothold in Afghanistan. Countering Indian influence in Afghanistan is a top Pakistani priority.

Since the post-Hamid Karzai government will almost certainly include elements of the Taliban, Pakistan has an interest in maintaining good relations with the Afghan Taliban leader Mullah Omar.

Mullah Omar has repeatedly said he does not want his part of the Taliban to attack targets inside Pakistan.

Furthermore, if Pakistan allows Punjabi militants, for example, to fight in Afghanistan then it means they cannot cause any problems at home.

Find out more

You can hear the full report on Assignment on BBC World Service Radio on Thursday, 12 May 2011 at 0905BST or on Crossing Continents on BBC Radio 4 at 1100BST . You can also listen via the BBC iPlayer or by downloading the free Crossing Continents podcast or Assignment podcast.

But it is not just Afghanistan. There have even been cases of groups thought to have close links with the ISI launching attacks in India itself.

For example, the deaths of more than 170 people in Mumbai in November 2008 were blamed on the Pakistan-based militant group, Lashkar-e-Taiba.

Under huge international pressure, the Pakistani authorities put the founder of the organisation, Hafiz Saeed, under house arrest, but a few months later released him.

Other members of the group were taken into custody in Pakistan but none of their trials have been processed.

Abbas Nasir, a former editor of the Dawn newspaper, says there are elements of the state that want some militants to be set free.

"People have been killed, the murderers have been arrested, and then released without charge at the behest and the instigation of the security services," he said.

"They perceive India as the biggest enemy that they have. And think they need the jihad, the international jihad forces, to protect them and to reinforce their foreign policy, be it in Afghanistan or Kashmir."

'Impunity or death'

The state's lack of determination to ensure the conviction of some jihadis has also been apparent in the investigation into the murder of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto.

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People have been killed, the murderers have been arrested, and then released without charge at the behest and the instigation of the security services”

Abbas Nasir Former editor of the Dawn newspaper

Despite strong evidence that the Taliban carried out the assassination, and the arrest of five suspects, their trials have been delayed on various pretexts.

Jihadis involved in less well-known cases also escape justice but for different reasons.

Fearing reprisals, eyewitnesses and judges are reluctant to give evidence against or to convict jihadis.

In addition, the legal system is stacked in favour of militants. For example, possession of any amount of explosives - including suicide vests - is a bailable offence.

Many police officers have stories about jihadis being let off.

Senior superintendent of police Akbar Nasir Khan, for example, once arrested a man for attacking a politician's house in Peshawar with a rocket launcher.

He arrested him, seized various weapons, and found eyewitnesses who had seen the accused with the rocket launcher.

But three months after the case went to court, the man turned up in Akbar Nasir Khan's office and suggested they have cup of tea.

The court had released him on bail on the grounds that he was not a threat to public security.

The failings of the judicial system mean that, increasingly, for street level militants, it is a case of impunity or death.

Some police officers are so frustrated by the failure of the courts to convict jihadis that they say that rather than arrest suspects they now kill them.

One police officer in Karachi told me he had killed 22 militants.

"They always say the same thing", he said, putting his finger on the middle of his forehead.

"They say don't break my body. Make it quick."

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Commentary

Pakistan does it's utmost to interject in the way of Justice and to allow death to occur inside and outside it's borders.

As a result it's people live day in and day out with suicide bombings and power cuts.

Until it's people rise up and revolt for a new government, this current Pakistan is a joke. It is a mecca of corruption, greed, and injustice.

As far as how much the ISI knows about it's borders and it's capital; to assume that it was totally ignorant of Osama's prescence, just miles from the capital, is absurd.

The ISI hid him there, under their wings, until America found the damning trail of bread crumbs.

Why are Americans so angry about petrol prices?

Why are Americans so angry about petrol prices?


Petrol pump

Rising petrol prices in the US are expected to be one of the key issues in the 2012 presidential election. But Americans still pay half of what Europeans fork out on the forecourt. So why is it such a big deal?

Whatever bounce President Barack Obama has received from Osama Bin Laden's demise, there is a widespread belief that his fortunes at the ballot box in 18 months will be decided by two things.

Gas and jobs.

Bar chart showing petrol prices in US and six other countries

While the latest employment situation appears to be mixed - figures last week suggested both jobs and jobless rose in number - the president will be closely monitoring feelings on the forecourts of petrol stations across the US.

A survey published on Sunday by Lundberg said the price of a gallon of petrol (a US liquid gallon, not imperial), had hit a nationwide average of $4 (£2.40), just 11 cents short of the record high in 2008 at the height of the financial crisis.

There has been some respite since the weekend with prices of gas, as it is known in the US, reportedly falling by five cents in some places, but the anger felt by drivers shows no sign of abating.

At Tyson's Corner Center, a huge shopping mall in northern Virginia, motorist after motorist said it was hurting them in everything they did - the commute, the weekly shop or the school run.

And worryingly for the faltering economic recovery - and the president - they said they were being forced to cut back on other spending to pay for gas.

What US motorists say...

Orgil Ganbold

"I notice the gas prices increase a lot because I spend about $200 a month on it. I've been driving for 10 years and this is the worse I've known it," says Orgil Ganbold, 29, pictured in his Jaguar.

"I earn the minimum wage and half my pay cheque goes on gas," says Aimen Idris, 20, who works in a shopping mall. "So I'm not eating out and not going out as much."

"It doesn't affect me so much because I live near where I work. But my friends talk about it a lot and my daughter hasn't visited since spring break because she can't afford the gas," says Gloria Burtrago, 50.

"Of course it's hurting, it's $1.25 more than a year ago. I'm considering buying a bike and cycling the four miles to work," says software engineer Pedro Alvarado, 25.

Drivers speaking from Tyson's Corner, northern Virginia

The issue is so important that it is rarely out of the news, with TV bulletins continually monitoring the prices and analysts always on hand to discuss the consequences. Polling suggests it is one of the biggest concerns among the electorate.

In Europe, prices are roughly double the US due to the tax, but the anger is not so palpable, and almost certainly not about to influence elections. A protest planned in the UK at the weekend drew only a fraction the number expected.

So what is it about the American relationship with gas that makes it such an important issue?

Americans use their cars more, so the pain is greater. They have, on average, a longer daily commute than all Europeans, except Hungarians and Romanians. Public transport is generally poor so many Americans have no alternative but to drive.

But there is also a symbolic significance about gas that goes to the heart of what America is.

It signifies mobility, freedom and personal liberty, says Dan Neil, motoring correspondent on the Wall Street Journal.

"Anger is probably more tied up with a wider sense of decline and also a loss of privilege.

"Cheap gas has been one of the prerogatives of the American Empire so people have become accustomed to it in a way which is somehow associated with our ability to wield our will around the world.

Why are gas prices rising in US?

  • Crude oil more expensive due to global demand for cars
  • Ethanol price increasing for same reason, makes up 10% of gas
  • Unrest in the Middle East can affect supply
  • Sales tax and credit card fees are fixed percentages and so compound these increases
  • Speculation by investors has impact day to day but not much over long term

American Petroleum Institute

"We're mad because we've spent a lot of money in the Middle East and made a lot of enemies and defended a lot of tyrants and still gas prices go up."

And knowing that the British pay double won't make Americans feel any better, he adds.

"Americans are not aware of what the rest of the world pays for gas. We are a very big, inward-looking domestic market. We don't watch soccer, we don't watch French movies and we don't really care what the Europeans pay for their gas.

"It's a very big country and the entire infrastructure is predicated on scandalously cheap energy. Everything we do is big - business, agriculture, entertainment.

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The reason why the British public are more sanguine [than Americans] is firstly because that's their nature”

Quentin Willson Motoring expert

"Where we live, where we play, all of that is predicated on cheap gas, so when the price of gas goes up, it really cuts to the heart of the American way of life."

The long-term solutions, he says, would involve a huge investment in rail, an overhaul of the infrastructure and a change in mindset - not events that happen overnight.

In the UK, there is no sign that the nationwide fuel protests by lorry drivers 11 years ago will be repeated soon, despite petrol now being double the price.

At the weekend, a protest at an oil refinery in Stanlow, near Cheshire, failed to draw the 1,000 vehicles expected. Instead there were little more than 100.

"The reason why the British public are more sanguine [than Americans] is firstly because that's their nature," says motoring expert and broadcaster Quentin Willson.

"And secondly, the fuel protests of 2000 will never happen again because the cops have got wise to it. Haulage companies have been told that if they start blocking refineries, they'll lose licences."

View from the Netherlands

  • Price rises are definitely reported - the oil industry puts out a consistent stream of press releases to keep the issue in the news - but there is no huge outcry
  • At current prices, Americans spend about $2,600 on transport fuel per head, almost twice the European average of $1,400
  • Petrol is relatively expensive and diesel relatively cheap in Netherlands, probably because we do not have a car industry, but do have a huge trucking industry

Mr Dings is the Dutch director of T&E which promotes sustainable transport across Europe

But the anger is there, says Mr Willson, who led a delegation to Downing Street to complain about fuel duty, and people are near breaking point.

They are stopping him in the street to complain, he says, and some are having to choose between food and fuel.

Petrol sales are down by a fifth in the last year and breakdowns due to tanks running empty are up by 17% in the same period.

"We're on the cusp of social unrest," he predicts.

But petrol is unlikely to define a UK election. In the US, gas prices are a bellwether of consumer confidence, says Mr Neil, and will be more influential in 2012 than Bin Laden.

Republicans blame Obama for gas prices, while Democrats blame oil companies, and they're both wrong, he says. It's more complex, to do with US oil refineries running at capacity and speculators driving up the price of crude oil.

Line graph showing price of petrol in the US and price of crude oil

The one key driver behind rising prices is the price of crude oil, says John Felmy, chief economist at the American Petroleum Institute.

It's increased in price by about $1.20 a gallon since August, he says, driven by increased global demand, especially in China and India, where more and more people are driving cars.

Zipcode lottery

  • Chicago, Illinois, $4.50
  • Los Angeles, California, $4.26
  • Seattle, Washington, $4.04
  • Boston, Massachusetts, $4.04
  • Newark, New Jersey, $3.87
  • Tucson, Arizona, $3.62

Source: Lundberg Survey

The portion of tax imposed by the federal government has not risen for several years, but there's a big variation between states, illustrated on the CNN website, which reflects the duties imposed by states.

Rising oil prices mean bigger profits. Last month, Texas-based oil company Exxon announced profits of $10.7bn (£6.4bn), up 69% on last year. There was an outcry, given the pain felt by motorists.

Mr Obama has said he wants Congress to end the $4bn in annual tax breaks for the oil and gas industry.

Although this won't affect prices at the pumps, he wants the money to be invested in clean energy sources.

But some of his critics say he should be doing more to liberate restrictions on American drilling.

Either way, as long as American drivers are feeling the pain at the pumps, the president will be wary of how that pain will play out at the polls.

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