Hot Tricks: Climate change we can't believe in?

The inconvenient truth about the Ice core Carbon Dioxide Temperature Correlations

One of the "scientific" highlights in Al Gore's movie is the discussion about the clear correlation between CO₂ and temperature, as is obtained in ice cores. To quote, he says the following when discussing the ice-core data (about 40 mins after the beginning for the film):

“The relationship is actually very complicated but there is one relationship that is far more powerful than all the others and it is this. When there is more carbon dioxide, the temperature gets warmer, because it traps more heat from the sun inside.”

Any laymen will understand from this statement that the ice-cores demonstrate a causal link, that higher amounts of CO₂ give rise to higher temperatures. Of course, this could indeed be the case, and to some extent, it necessarily is. However, can this conclusion really be drawn from this graph? Can one actually say anything at all about how much CO₂ affects the global temperature?

To the dismay of Al Gore, the answer is that this graph doesn't prove at all that CO₂ has any effect on the global temperature. All it says is that there is some equilibrium between dissolved CO₂ and atmospheric CO₂, an equilibrium which depends on the temperature. Of course, the temperature itself can depend on a dozen different factors, including CO₂, but just the CO₂ / temperature correlation by itself doesn't tell you the strength of the CO₂→ΔT link. It doesn't even tell you the sign.

Al Gore uses pyrotechnics to lead his audience to the wrong conclusion. If CO₂ affects the temperature, as this graph supposedly demonstrates, then the 20^th century CO₂ rise should cause a temperature rise larger than the rise seen from the last ice-age to today's interglacial. This is of course wrong. All it says is that we offsetted the dissolution balance of CO₂ in the oceans. If we were to stop burning fossil fuels (which is a good thing in general, but totally irrelevant here), then the large CO₂ increase would turn into a CO₂ decrease, returning back to the pre-industrial level over a century or so.

Think for example on a closed coke bottle. It has coke with dissolved CO₂ and it has air with gaseous CO₂. Just like Earth, most of the CO₂ is in the dissolved form. If you warm the coke bottle, the coke cannot hold as much CO₂, so it releases a little amount and increases the partial pressure of the gaseous CO₂, enough to force the rest of the dissolved CO₂ to stay dissolved. Since there is much more dissolved CO₂ than gaseous CO₂, the amount released from the coke is relatively small.

Of course, the comparison can go only so far. The mechanisms governing CO₂ in the oceans are much more complicated such that the equilibrium depends on the amount of biological activity, on the complicated chemical reactions in the oceans, and many more interactions I am probably not aware of. For example, a lower temperature can increase the amount of dust reaching the oceans. This will bring more fertilizing iron which will increase the biological activity (since large parts of the ocean's photosynthesis is nutrient limited) and with it affect the CO₂ dissolution balance. The bottom line is that the equilibrium is quite complicated to calculate.

Nevertheless, the equilibrium can be empirically determined by simply reading it straight off the ice-core CO₂/temperature graph. The global temperature variations between ice-ages and interglacials is about 4°C. The change in the amount of atmospheric CO₂ is about 80 ppm. This gives 20 ppm of oceanic out-gassing per °C.

The main evidence proving that CO₂ does not control the climate, but at most can play a second fiddle by just amplifying the variations already present, is that of lags. In all cases where there is a good enough resolution, one finds that the CO₂ lags behind the temperature by typically several hundred to a thousand years. Namely, the basic climate driver which controls the temperature cannot be that of CO₂. That driver, whatever it is, affects the climate equilibrium, and the temperature changes accordingly. Once the oceans adjust (on time scale of decades to centuries), the CO₂ equilibrium changes as well. The changed CO₂ can further affect the temperature, but the CO₂ / temperature correlation cannot be used to say almost anything about the strength of this link. Note that I write "almost anything", because it turns out that the CO₂ temperature correlation can be used to say at least one thing about the temperature sensitivity to CO₂ variations, as can be seen in the box below.

It is interesting to note that the IPCC scientific report (e.g., the AR4) avoids this question of lag. Instead of pointing it out, they write that in some cases (e.g., when comparing Antarctic CO₂ to temperature data) it is hard to say anything definitive since the data sets come from different cores. This is of course chaff to cover the fact that when CO₂ and temperature are measured with the same cores, or when carefully comparing different cores, a lag of typically several hundred years is found to be present, if the quality and resolution permit. Such an example is found in the figure below.

Analysis of ice core data from Antarctica by Indermühle et al. (GRL, vol. 27, p. 735, 2000), who find that CO₂ lags behind the temperature by 1200±700 years.

There are many examples of studies finding lags, a few examples include:

• Indermühle et al. (GRL, vol. 27, p. 735, 2000), who find that CO₂ lags behind the temperature by 1200±700 years, using Antarctic ice-cores between 60 and 20 kyr before present (see figure).
• Fischer et al. (Science, vol 283, p. 1712, 1999) reported a time lag 600±400 yr during early de-glacial changes in the last 3 glacial–interglacial transitions.
• Siegenthaler et al. (Science, vol. 310, p. 1313, 2005) find a best lag of 1900 years in the Antarctic data.
• Monnin et al. (Science vol 291, 112, 2001) find that the start of the CO₂ increase in the beginning of the last interglacial lagged the start of the temperature increase by 800 years.

Clearly, the correlation and lags unequivocally demonstrate that the temperature drives changes in the atmospheric CO₂ content. The same correlations, however cannot be used to say anything about the temperature's sensitivity to variations in the CO₂. I am sure there is some effect in that direction, but to empirically demonstrate it, one needs a correlation between the temperature and CO₂ variations, which do not originate from temperature variations.

The only temperature independent CO₂ variations I know of are those of anthropogenic sources, i.e., the 20^th century increase, and CO₂ variations over geological time scales.

Since the increase of CO₂ over the 20^th is monotonic, and other climate drivers (e.g., the sun) increased as well, a correlation with temperature is mostly meaningless. This leaves the geological variations in CO₂ as the only variations which could be used to empirically estimate the effect of the CO₂→ΔT link.

The reason that over geological time scales, the variations do not depend on the temperature is because over these long durations, the total CO₂ in the ecosystem varies from a net imbalance between volcanic out-gassing and sedimentation/subduction. This "random walk" in the amount of CO₂ is the reason why there were periods with 3 or even 10 times as much CO₂ than present, over the past billion years.

Unfortunately, there is no clear correlation between CO₂ and temperature over geological time scales. This lack of correlation should have translated into an upper limit on the CO₂→ΔT link. However, because the geochemical temperature data is actually biased by the amount of CO₂, this lack of correlation result translates into a CO₂ doubling sensitivity which is about ΔT_x2 ~ 1.0±0.5°C. More about it in this paper.

The moral of this story is that when you are shown data such as the graph by Al Gore, ask yourself what does it really mean. You might be surprised from the answer.

Source

Germany's top soldier quits over Afghanistan raid

Army chief Wolfgang Schneiderhan is to stand down from his post

Germany's top soldier has resigned over a Nato air strike in Afghanistan in which civilians were killed, the defence minister said.

Wolfgang Schneiderhan stood down over the 4 September attack in Kunduz on fuel tankers hijacked by the Taliban.

His decision followed reports that information about the strike - ordered by a German commander - was withheld, the defence minister said.

The strike is thought to have killed dozens of civilians collecting fuel.

Taliban fighters had seized the two tankers while they were being driven from Tajikistan to supply Nato forces in Kabul.

Reports said that villagers were taking fuel from the tankers when the strike happened.

It is not clear exactly how many civilians died.

The independent Afghanistan Rights Monitor group put the number of civilians deaths at 70. The Afghan government later said that at least 100 people died, of whom 30 were civilians.

Defence Minister Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg told parliament that Gen Schneiderhan had failed to provide proper information about the incident.

Gen Schneiderhan had "released himself from his duties at his own request", the minister said.

State Secretary Peter Wichert would assume his responsibilities, he added.

Source

Dollar falls to a 14-year low against the yen

As the dollar falls, the price of gold is rising

The US dollar has hit a 14-year low against the Japanese yen with low interest rates in the US making the greenback less attractive to investors.

The dollar slipped to 86.5 yen, its lowest level since July 1995.

The US has indicated it is unconcerned about the dollar's slide, and will not intervene to strengthen it.

Many traders are swapping dollar holdings for gold as a safer investment in the current uncertain economic climate.

The price of gold is currently at a record high of $1,194.5 an ounce.

"This yen strengthening is caused by dollar selling rather than yen buying, so this is not something Japan can handle itself," said Yutaka Miura at Mizuho Securities.

"This trend will continue unless the Japanese government takes action, in co-operation with the US."

In the short term at least, analysts said such intervention was unlikely.

The dollar has also fallen significantly against the pound and the euro this year.

Source

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Commentary

Thanks to Al Jazeera I've actually been tracking the Yen for about a year now. I remember a long time ago how it was $1 buying 110 yen or higher.

Now it's 1-88 on average. That's a huge slide and it was definitely unexpected. Everyday I watched it fall and fall, month by month, no a steady trend down.

You couldn't say that about the Euro and the Pound which have been in this territory many times before and deserve it's higher numbers. Maybe this is a sign that the Japanese economy is finally recovering and getting out of the 90's stagnation that brought everything down there.

German 'Robin Hood' banker gets suspended sentence

The woman used the money to cover up unauthorised overdrafts

A German bank employee who secretly transferred money from rich to poor clients has been given a 22-month suspended prison term.

The 62-year-old woman, dubbed the 'Robin Hood Banker', moved more than $11m (£7m) in 117 transfers.

The court in Bonn was told that the employee, who has not been named, took no money for herself.

The bank made a loss of more than $1.5m (£1m) when poor customers were unable to pay back unauthorised overdrafts.

The employee was accused of allowing overdrafts for customers who would not normally qualify for them.

Small pension

She then used the money from richer customers to temporarily disguise the loans during the bank's monthly audit of overdrafts.

The woman has begun reimbursing the bank for the losses, reportedly from a small retirement pension.

She could have faced a four-year prison sentence, but the court decided on leniency as she had confessed immediately and did not profit personally.

The woman was also considered to have suffered enough, through the loss of her job and the requirement that she pay back the lost funds.

Source

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Commentary

She didn't profit, she helped people in need, and only the bank was hurt with a loss of a measly million dollars and she is still punished?

So what's the message? Don't help people at the small price of hurting the bank. The bank deserves some pain after everything it put us through.

Global Warning: Leaked 'Climate Fraud' emails under probe

Fox News Analyst Actually Gets it Right!

Israel's Netanyahu Slaps Peace & US Across The Face

Russia 'is now a criminal state', says Bill Browder

Investment specialist Bill Browder says Russia is "essentially a criminal state"

Russia has now turned into a "criminal state", according to the man who was once its leading foreign investor.

Bill Browder of Hermitage Capital was reacting to the news that his lawyer had died in prison in Russia after being held for a year without charge.

He told the BBC that his lawyer, Sergei Magnitsky, had effectively been "held hostage and they killed their hostage."

Through Hermitage Capital Bill Browder campaigned against corruption at some of Russia's largest companies.

Russian officials say they are investigating Mr Magnitsky's death.

He was their hostage and they killed their hostage by denying him medical attention Bill Browder, Hermitage Capital

In 2005 Mr Browder was banned from Russia as a threat to national security, after allegations that his firms evaded tax, but Mr Browder says his company was targeted by criminals trying to seize millions of pounds worth of his assets.

Mr Browder says he was punished for being a threat to corrupt politicians and bureaucrats.

Since then, a number of Mr Browder's associates in Russia - as well as lawyers acting for his company - have been detained, beaten or robbed.

Before the accusations of tax evasion were raised, for many years Mr Browder had been one of the most outspoken defenders of the Russian government and its then-president Vladimir Putin.

'False confession'

According to Mr Browder, Sergei Magnitsky developed stomach and pancreas problems in prison which were diagnosed by a prison physician. He claims Mr Magnitsky was then moved to a new prison and then deprived of medical treatment.

Sergei Magnitsky died in prison

"They basically said to him if you sign the following false confessions then we'll give you medical treatment - otherwise we wont," claims Mr Browder.

Mr Magnitsky apparently wrote numerous complaints to the court, prosecutors and the prison authorities requesting medical treatment. Mr Browder claims that Mr Magnistky's pleas were first ignored and then denied.

Mr Browder believes that Mr Magnitsky's death is a direct result of tax evasion allegations against him.

"They're trying to come up with any kind of charges they can against me and they were using him as their tool. He was their hostage and they killed their hostage by denying him medical attention, " he says.

Sergei Magnitsky was one of the lawyers hired by Mr Browder to investigate whether fraud had been committed against his firms.

Mr Browder claims that when the police raided his office they took away corporate documents which they then used to steal his companies.

We're not going to let it rest until the people responsible for the death face justice Bill Browder, Hermitage Capital

"Sergei Magnitsky was one of the lawyers who discovered the whole crime, figured out who was responsible and then testified against the police officers and after he testified against the police officers the very same police officers had him arrested on spurious charges."

The circumstances surrounding Mr Magnitsky's death has caused Bill Browder to question his attitude to Russia under Putin.

'Criminal state'

"When Putin first showed up and said he was going to tame the oligarchs I was the biggest fan of that particular concept. Then I realised that what he meant by taming the oligarchs was by sticking law enforcement people in their place," he says.

"Now you have a bunch of law enforcement people who are essentially organised criminals with unlimited power to ruin lives take property and do whatever they like and that's far worse than I have ever seen in Russia before. Russia is essentially a criminal state now."

Vladimir Putin won the 2000 Russian presidential election

Mr Browder says he is going to do all he can to get justice for Sergei Magnitsky.

"We're not going to let it rest until the people responsible for the death face justice," he said.

Responding to Mr Magnitsky's death, Russian Justice Minister Alexander Konovalov said he needed more evidence that the prisoner did not receive adequate medical care.

"I would be grateful to human rights activists for providing specific information. In every case where there are doubts that assistance was timely and of good quality, there has to be a probe".

The investigative committee for the Prosecutor's office said they were conducting a full investigation in the death.

"As of now, we don't see a justification for starting a criminal case," said Moscow Investigative Committee chief, Anatoly Bagmet.

Source

Azerbaijan threatens Armenia over Nagorno Karabakh

President Aliyev says Azerbaijan has the full right to use force

Azeri President Ilham Aliyev has warned he is ready to use force to wrest control of a disputed enclave from Armenia if last-ditch peace talks fail.

He said talks starting on Sunday in Munich were the final hope of settling the Nagorno Karabakh issue peacefully.

A fragile ceasefire has been in place in the region since it was the scene of a brutal war between the two countries in the 1990s.

Both nations lay claim to the enclave, currently under Armenian control.

In comments broadcast on Azeri TV on Saturday, President Aliyev said that if the Munich talks failed to reach agreement he would be "left with no other option".

"We have the full right to liberate our land by military means," he said.

Western diplomats attending the talks, the latest in a round of internationally mediated meetings on the dispute, have said they hope the situation will not reach that point.

Some 30,000 people died in the Nagorno Karabakh conflict, which erupted after the mountainous region declared independence in 1991.

The region and seven surrounding Azeri district have been under Armenian control since the Russian-brokered ceasefire in 1994.

Azerbaijan has never ruled out military action to take back the land and has spent billions on dollars on building up its military.

The BBC's Tom Esslemont, in the South Caucuses region, says Mr Aliyev is using stronger language than ever before because the talks come at a critical time.

The meeting will be the first since Armenia and Turkey - an ally of Azerbaijan - normalised diplomatic relations after a century of hostility.

That move has left Azerbaijan feeling isolated, says our correspondent.

Source