Showing posts with label Business. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Business. Show all posts

Tuesday, August 31, 2010

How business can learn from the animal kingdom

How business can learn from the animal kingdom


Teamwork - it's a practice many businesses strive for but when it comes to execution few can beat the animal kingdom. From ants to elephants, creatures which may not be the smartest on their own get a boost from acting together.

This power in numbers theory is something that author Peter Miller has explored in his new book The Smart Swarm and he joined Katty Kay in the studio to discuss his findings.

Source

Wednesday, July 28, 2010

Why The Market Is Horribly Overvalued Right Now

Why The Market Is Horribly Overvalued Right Now

Three Leg Chair

Image: pgoh13.free.fr/geneva



We stated in the 4th of July holiday comment that we would discuss valuations in the “special report” we wrote last week. As it turned out the “special report” got too bogged down in the discussion of why the private debt in our country would have to be deleveraged before a significant recovery could take place. We encourage you to read it.

This comment will now address why there is so much controversy about valuations in the stock market presently. The bulls are constantly exclaiming in the financial press and financial TV why investors must buy equities due to these “fantastic valuations”. We asked our viewers to prepare for this comment by taking a look at the section on our home page titled “Limbo, Limbo, How Low Can it Go?” There you will find many different metrics that show the historical valuations and where the stock market sold at the peaks and troughs over many years. All these charts were produced by Ned Davis Research, which we consider the best data source available.

We believe after studying the charts mentioned above you will find that none of the most popular metrics will show the stock market to be inexpensive. The only way the main valuation metric P/E Ratios) could show the market to be cheap is to replace the age old “reported earnings” (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles-GAAP) with “operating earnings”.

The pundits are using forward looking “operating earnings” in order to reach for their estimates of 10 to 12 times earnings. “Operating Earnings” which exclude “write-offs”, make no sense whatsoever, and only came into existence in the mid 1980s in order to make the market look undervalued. We advised you to look at the articles written by us and published in Barron’s on our home page (Comstock in the News). The first was in May of 2003 titled “A Simple Calculation”, and the second titled “What’s the Real P/E Ratio?” written in May 2008. We just reread the 2008 article and found some interesting statistics we used back then and until now didn’t recall just how far off the earnings estimates were.

* “ARE YOU KIDDING ME?”
* 6 REASONS FOR A SECOND HALF SLOW-DOWN
* DEEP DEMOGRAPHIC DOO-DOO

This is what we stated in the article back in May 2008, “Look at the numbers. Reported earnings for the S&P 500 for 2007 were just over $66. The operating earnings for 2007 were $84.54. The estimated numbers for 2008 are about $69 for reported earnings and about $90 for operating earnings. By the way, these estimates have just recently been revised downward drastically, due to the slowdown in the U.S. economy.” Imagine what they were before they were revised DOWNWARD DRASTICALLY. The actual numbers came in at $14.88 for reported earnings vs. the estimate of $69, and $49.51 for operating earnings vs. the estimate of $90 (see actual earnings in the attached chart). This means that with just 7 months to go in 2008 the earnings were off the $69 estimate by $54, and off the $90 estimate by $40. This goes to show how absurd it was and still is to use forward earnings-and imagine if we used the estimates before they were revised downward drastically. Numerous articles have been published which show that forward estimated earnings are not reliable.

The earnings estimates for the year 2010 are about $82 for operating and $67.35 for reported earnings. The earnings estimates for 2011 are $95 for operating, and $78 for reported earnings. As bad as it is to use forward earnings, the really insane part of these estimates is that virtually all of “Wall Street” is using Operating earnings that were not even in existence before the mid 1980s. Even more outrageous is the fact that these earnings exclude “write-offs” even if the write-offs are recurring and disregard the GAAP earnings (reported earnings) which were the only earnings ever used before the mid 1980s (and which became more popular each year as it became harder to make stocks look undervalued-especially during the dot.com bubble).

If you break down these earnings estimates by the quarter or half year, you will find that the estimates are higher for the second half of this year than the first and clearly higher by about 15% in 2011. We find this to be curious since it seems to us that the recovery is running out of steam. The main ingredients for virtually any upswing in the economy are dependent upon 1. Employment 2. Consumer Spending 3. Housing 4. Increase in Exports, and 5. Restocking of Inventory. Usually these ingredients need easy money or some form of inflation. Despite low interest rates banks are reluctant to loan money to small businesses and individuals. These ingredients needed to stimulate the economy have all either rolled over or never really got started (Housing-see 6/10/10 “The Dire Outlook for Housing”). Retail sales were just released and were disappointing for the second month in a row after a false start from the stimulus package. Employment continues to disappoint and the rebuilding of inventory has come to a screeching halt. The current account deficit has just recently gotten worse and the dollar is strengthening vs. the Euro.

The worst part of the ingredients that produce an economic rebound is the fact that deflation is permeating the whole system. The Fed was worried about deflation back in 2003 and talked about it constantly. Well now, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index was virtually unchanged at 0.0% in May while the CPI was down 0.1% in April and down 0.2% in May. The PPI released today was down 0.5% in June vs. down 0.3% in May. In 2003 the median CPI from Cleveland was up about 1.5% and the CPI was up 2.3% during all of the Feds ranting about deflation and how they would make sure it will not occur in this country. Don’t believe them.

It sure doesn’t seem that the economy has much going for it, and if that is the case, it is hard to believe that the earnings will be higher in the second half than the first (which is presently the estimate), and really hard to believe that they will increase by 15% next year (which is also the estimate). If we use the reported earnings estimate of $67.35 (which we don’t believe) you get a P/E of 16.2, if you use the estimate of next year of $77.64 (which we really don’t believe) the P/E works out to just over 14. All of these P/E ratios on reported earnings are above the average for forward earnings and do not reflect an undervalued market.

Our favorite means of determining a fair valuation is to smooth the reported earnings over a 9 year period of time by taking the 9 year average and grow the average for 4.5 years (one half the 9 years) at 6% (where earnings have grown historically) to arrive at the $64 of smoothed earnings. Using the smoothed earnings of $64 you arrive at the overvalued level of 17 times. We also believe that this market will not bottom out until it reaches 10 times or lower the smoothed earnings. Although this may sound implausible, we note that the S&P 500 sold at a P/E of 10 or under smoothed earnings in 17 of the past 60 years.

Source

Saturday, November 21, 2009

Tuition Hikes: Protests in California and Elsewhere

Tuition Hikes: Protests in California and Elsewhere

UC Berkeley students hang out in Sproul Plaza on the UC Berkeley campus April 17, 2007 in Berkeley, California.
UC Berkeley students hang out in Sproul Plaza on the UC Berkeley campus in Berkeley, California.
Justin Sullivan / Getty

Facing reductions in state funding, public universities from Michigan to Arizona to North Carolina have slashed budgets and hiked tuition. The most extreme case is California where University of California regents voted this week to increase tuition a whopping 32% to more than $10,000 annually — a three-fold increase in a decade. The move was greeted by student demonstrations. ~~~~~~~~~

Commentary

Defund education and defund our future. If you're 40 and you plan on living a comfortable lifestyle at 60, then you need teenagers and Young Adults to keep the revolution going.

We've had such leaps in technology because of our Education Revolution.

Thursday, November 19, 2009

Power-guzzling TVs to be banned

Power-guzzling TVs to be banned

Energy-hungry television sets will soon be banned across California in a landmark move by state legislators to reduce energy consumption
Television sets in California will be required to be more energy efficient

Energy-hungry television sets will soon be banned across California in a landmark move by state legislators to reduce energy consumption.

The state will be the first in the US to impose a mandatory energy curb on TVs, an often-overlooked power drain.

Supporters say the move will help save California residents more than $8bn over 10 years in energy costs.

But some 25% of TVs currently on sale would not meet the minimum standards, an industry group in Virginia said.

The California Energy Commission will require that all new television sets up to 58 inches (147cm) be more energy efficient by 2011, consuming 33% less energy than current sets.

The standards will get even tougher in 2013, when regulators will require sets to be 50% more efficient.

"We have every confidence this industry will be able to meet the rule and then some," energy commissioner Julia Levin said.

"It will save consumers money, it will help protect public health and it will spark innovation."

Television usage currently accounts for 10% of home energy bills in California.

'Limit choice'

Environmental groups applauded the tougher standards, saying the new rules would help avoid the need for a new 500-megawatt power plant to be built and save nearly $1bn each year.

However, some consumer advocates and industry leaders opposed the move, saying it would limit consumer choice and increase the price of television sets.

"It could drive up costs," said Dave Arland, who represents the plasma television industry.

"The ones that are super energy efficient are the ones that are more pricey."

California has long pioneered environmental change, setting tough standards on everything from refrigerators to washing machines.

As a result, electricity use in the state has stayed level for nearly three decades, whereas it has risen elsewhere in the US.

Source

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Commentary

Stories like this make me hopeful about California's future. I just wish we were able to have 50% of our energy from renewables by 2020. Maybe this is one small step in the right direction.

Tuesday, November 10, 2009

Major power failures hit Brazil

Major power failures hit Brazil

Rio during the power outage, 11 November 2009
Street and traffic lights in Rio were affected by the outage

Brazil's two largest cities - Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo - suffered widespread blackouts due to a problem at the Itaipu dam on Paraguay border.

All of Paraguay was also left in darkness, but only for 15 minutes, while several other Brazilian cities were affected for more than four hours.

The power system lost 17,000 megawatts after the massive dam went offline, possibly because of a storm.

Extra police were put on the streets to prevent a surge in crime.

The director of the dam said that it lost its entire hydroelectric output, but power was gradually being restored.

In Brazil's major cities, the underground railway systems in Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo shut down, after the power cuts hit soon after 2200 (0000GMT), leaving many passengers stranded.

Thousands of rail passengers had to walk down underground tracks to reach stations.

No traffic lights or street lights were working in Rio, the hardest hit city, and Sao Paulo, forcing traffic to stop or slow to a crawl.

Crime concerns

Extra police had been ordered onto Rio's streets to prevent any opportunistic crime, reports said.

The BBC's correspondent in Sao Paulo, Gary Duffy, said the power outage happened at a time when millions would have been watching the country's popular soap opera on TV.

There was absolute chaos on the streets of Sao Paulo, as baffled motorists stopped to ask what had happened.

Radio programmes broadcast appeals for people to drive safely.

Neighbourhood blackouts are common in the city of 19 million, but the scale of this outage was remarkable, our correspondent added.

The power failure also affected the southeastern states of Minas Gerais and Espirito Santo, the southwestern state of Mato Grosso do Sul, parts of the central state of Goias, and the federal district of Brasilia, although the capital itself was unaffected.

In all, nine of Brazil's 27 states were affected.

The Itaipu dam provides Brazil with 20% of its electricity.

Mines and Energy Minister Edison Lobao said a large storm in the area of the dam might have caused the power failure.

"The exact cause still isn't known, but we suspect that atmospheric problems, an intense storm, may have contributed to or caused the transmission lines to Itaipu to shut down," he said.

In Paraguay, which relies on the Itaipu dam for 90% of its electricity, the entire country went black for 15 minutes.

Source

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Commentary

This is something we all should have seen coming. I learned about the dam a long time ago and saw a documentary about it's construction.

It never occurred to me, "Gee, what would happen if the dam went through technical difficulties and stopped working". Well Ladies and Gents, we have our answer with this article. Again I think this problem went over a lot of peoples heads even though it was staring us right in the face :P



Sunday, November 8, 2009

China Woos Africa — And Not Just For Its Resources

China Woos Africa — And Not Just For Its Resources

Workers at Imboulou Dam, in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The 120-megawatt power plant is funded by the China National Mechanical and Equipment Corporation.
Workers at Imboulou Dam, in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The 120-megawatt power plant is funded by the China National Mechanical and Equipment Corporation.
Paulo Woods

Monday, November 2, 2009

Myners' super-fast shares warning

Myners' super-fast shares warning

Lord Myners
Lord Myners fears HFT risks the investor - company relationship

Companies could become the "playthings" of speculators because of super-fast automatic share trading, Treasury minister Lord Myners has warned.

The peer, a former fund manager, told the BBC this was one of the main dangers of such a system.

High-frequency trading (HFT) is automated dealing where shares change hands, frequently in microseconds.

Lord Myners said the process risked destroying the relationship between an investor and a company.

HFT is based on computer programmes which, in effect, remove the human element from share transactions by searching for trends in the market and trading automatically in a fraction of a second.

FIND OUT MORE
Listen to File on 4, BBC Radio 4 2000 GMT, Tuesday 3 November 2009, repeated 1700, Sunday 8 November 2009.
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It is estimated that HFT has risen sharply in the USA and now accounts for up to 70% of all share trades and is rising rapidly in the UK and Europe.

But Lord Myners told the BBC's File on 4 he already had doubts about this development.

"I have been increasingly troubled that we seem to find ourselves in a situation in which shares are to be bought and sold rather than being part of an ownership relationship between investor and a company," he said.

"The danger is that nobody really seems to think of themselves as owners."

Speculator fears

Lord Myners said that investment bankers said HFT was good for investors as it "drives down the cost of capital".

However, the financial services secretary added: "I think the fact that people can own shares for nano-seconds seems completely divorced from the concept of a joint stock company and distributed share ownership.

"The danger is that companies become the playthings of speculators."

The peer fears that this process denies capital to businesses which should be the main aim of share trading.

"It has gone too far, it has now lost its supporting function for the provision of capital to business and has become a game to be played."

Source

Thursday, October 15, 2009

Google sees record $1.6bn profit

Google sees record $1.6bn profit

Google signs inside Google headquarters in Mountain View, California, US, file pic from October 2008
Google profits beat analysts' expectations

Google has reported its highest quarterly profit, suggesting that the internet advertising market is bouncing back from the recession.

Google reported net profit of $1.64bn (£1bn) for the third quarter, a 27% increase on the same period a year ago.

Revenue for the three-month period came in at $4.38bn, which was well ahead of analysts' expectations of $1.29bn.

"The worst of the recession is clearly behind us," said Google chief executive Eric Schmidt.

"Because of what we have seen, we now have the confidence to be optimistic about our future."

Google's shares rose $16.44, or 3.1%, to $546.35 in extended trading.

The internet search engine has weathered the recession better than other advertising-dependent companies, and it was widely expected to be one of the first beneficiaries of an economic recovery.

"Google has no competition. Yahoo is withering on the vine and [Microsoft's] Bing is too tiny now," said Coin Gillis, senior analyst at Brigantine Advisors.

"They did great on every single metric. We think this is sustainable."

Source

Sunday, October 11, 2009

Jaw bone created from stem cells

Jaw bone created from stem cells

New bone created in the lab
The new bone was created from bone marrow stem cells

Scientists have created part of the jaw joint in the lab using human adult stem cells.

They say it is the first time a complex, anatomically-sized bone has been accurately created in this way.

It is hoped the technique could be used not only to treat disorders of the specific joint, but more widely to correct problems with other bones too.

The Columbia University study appears in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

The bone which has been created in the lab is known as the temporomandibular joint (TMJ).

The availability of personalized bone grafts engineered from the patient's own stem cells would revolutionise the way we currently treat these defects
Dr Gordana Vunjak-Novakovic
Columbia University

Problems with the joint can be the result of birth defects, arthritis or injury.

Although they are widespread, treatment can be difficult.

The joint has a complex structure which makes it difficult to repair by using grafts from bones elsewhere in the body.

The latest study used human stem cells taken from bone marrow.

These were seeded into a tissue scaffold, formed into the precise shape of the human jaw bone by using digital images from a patient.

The cells were then cultured using a specially-designed bioreactor which was able to infuse the growing tissue with exactly the level of nutrients found during natural bone development.

Big potential

Lead researcher Dr Gordana Vunjak-Novakovic said: "The availability of personalised bone grafts engineered from the patient's own stem cells would revolutionise the way we currently treat these defects."

Dr Vunjak-Novakovic said the new technique could also be applied to other bones in the head and neck, including skull bones and cheek bones, which are similarly difficult to graft.

The option to engineer anatomically pieces of human bone in this way could potentially transform the ability to carry out reconstruction work, for instance following serious injury or cancer treatment.

She said: "We thought the jawbone would be the most rigorous test of our technique; if you can make this, you can make any shape."

She stressed that the joint created in the lab was bone only, and did not include other tissue, such as cartilage. However, the Columbia team is working on a new method for engineering hybrid grafts including bone and cartilage.

Another major challenge for scientists will be to find a way to engineer bone with a blood supply that can be easily connected to the blood supply of the host.

Professor Anthony Hollander, a tissue engineering expert from the University of Bristol who helped produce an artificial windpipe last year, said there was still a lot of work to be done before the new bone could be used on patients.

But he said: "One of the major problems facing scientists in this field is how to engineer a piece of bone with the right dimensions - that is critical for some of these bone defects.

"This is a lovely piece of tissue engineering which has produced bone with a high degree of accuracy in terms of shape."

Source

Saturday, September 26, 2009

Thought Bonds Were Safe? Think Again

Thought Bonds Were Safe? Think Again

Illustration of bonds
Illustration by Harry Campbell for Time

Investors have spent the past year or so relearning an important lesson: stocks are risky. From May of last year to March of this one, stocks in the U.S., as measured by the S&P 500 index, lost more than half their value. Many overseas stock markets did even worse.

After being burned, we humans tend to avoid what singed us and seek something soothing. High-quality bonds — in particular, the "risk free" ones issued by the U.S. government — were the most soothing investments of all during the financial crisis. While stocks were losing more than half their value, 10-year Treasuries returned more than 10% during that May-to-March period. And so — big surprise — investors have poured $240 billion into bond mutual funds so far this year, according to the Investment Company Institute. Stock funds — despite a big rebound in stock prices since March — have taken in less than $15 billion. (See 10 things to buy during the recession.)

Makes sense, right? Stocks, risky. Bonds, safe. Or at least safer. But risk in financial markets has an irritating habit of following investors around. The big rush into bonds — especially high-quality, low-risk bonds such as Treasuries and government-guaranteed mortgage securities — may have created a situation in which most of today's bond investors are bound to lose money. Not 50% losses, as in the stock market, but losses nonetheless. Which for many newcomers to bonds will be a big shock.

"They lost money on their house, they lost money on stocks," says Tom Atteberry, co-manager of the FPA New Income mutual fund. "They put money in bonds because they think it's safe. Then interest rates are going to rise on them, and they're going to lose money on bonds too."

The first time I heard Atteberry say this, I thought my ears needed cleaning. You see, FPA New Income is a bond fund — a very successful one. The mutual-fund raters at Morningstar named Atteberry and his co-manager and boss, Robert Rodriguez, 2008's fixed-income managers of the year. Yet Atteberry sees only trouble ahead. "I've got a bull market in bonds that's unsustainable," he contends. "It might last another six months. It might last another year. Is it going to last another three to five years? I don't think so."

Before we get into the details, it's worth going over the difference between stocks and bonds. When you buy stock, you get part ownership of a company. If it does well, you share in the gains. If it flounders, you lose money. Bonds, on the other hand, represent a promise from a company or government or other borrower to pay you back, with interest. When you buy a bond, you're making a loan. Sometimes bond issuers (a.k.a. borrowers) renege on their promises. The financial crisis originated with a rash of defaults on subprime mortgages that had been packaged into bonds. But the bond risks that vex Atteberry have little to do with that default risk — Uncle Sam will make the payments. The worry is over rising interest rates. (See pictures of retailers which have gone out of business.)

Right now the interest rate on a 10-year Treasury bond is about 3.5%. That could go lower — in fact, it did go lower at the height of the panic last fall, to just above 2%. But the likeliest future path for Treasury yields, Atteberry figures — on the basis of history and the fact that rates have been kept low this year by Federal Reserve purchases, investor demand and other factors — is up. If you own a 10-year Treasury bond yielding 3.5%, interest rates rising to 4% or 5% or higher mean your bond (with its rate stuck at 3.5%) falls in value. That's the logic of bonds: when interest rates rise, bond prices fall. Since 1981, when the 10-year Treasury rate topped 15% amid fears of runaway inflation, the interest-rate trend has been downward, bringing on a long bull market in bonds. One of these days, the trend will shift.

Atteberry is hoping to navigate the minefield ahead by holding only bonds that come due soon, which are less sensitive to changes in interest rates (but also have a lower yield than longer-dated bonds). He may ask FPA New Income's board for permission to increase the fund's limit on foreign bond holdings from its current 10%. And he has positive things to say about the inflation-indexed bonds that Treasury has issued since 1997, although he doesn't think they're a particularly good deal now.

Most bondholders, though, will find it hard to avoid losses. And what will retail investors do once bonds have burned them too? Atteberry thinks many will just put their money in the bank. The trade-off there is a measly return: the highest savings-account rate in the land is currently just 1.83%, according to Bankrate.com and most banks pay far less. Less than inflation. But hey, at least the money's safe.

Source


Twitter confirms major cash boost

Twitter confirms major cash boost

Twitter screenshot
There are an estimated 45 million users of Twitter

Social networking website Twitter has confirmed that it has closed a "significant round of funding".

Co-founder Evan Williams said in a blog post that the site had secured money from five investment firms.

However, he did not confirm earlier reports that suggested the firm had managed to secure $100 million (£62m), which would value the firm at $1bn.

The site, which allows users to write and share 140-character messages, has more than 45 million users worldwide.

The site had previously raised $35m in February in a deal that valued the business then at $255m.

"It was important to us that we find investment partners who share our vision for building a company of enduring value," wrote Mr Williams.

"Twitter's journey has just begun."

Industry watchers have pointed out that the firm still has no way of making money.

However, earlier this month the site revised its terms and conditions to allow advertising on its service.

"We leave the door open for advertising. We'd like to keep our options open," wrote co-founder Biz Stone in a blog.

The new funding has come from new investors Insight Venture Partners and T Rowe Price, as well as existing backers Institutional Venture Partners, Spark Capital and Benchmark Capital.

Source