As Palestinians Push for Statehood, Israel Finds Itself Isolated
Angry neighbors Protesters attack Israel's embassy in Cairo, forcing diplomats to flee
There are links between nations, cordial relations, firm bonds, alliances and strategic partnerships. But what Turkey and Israel had in mind just four years ago was something akin to being joined at the hip. The plan was to snake an extraordinary "infrastructure corridor" from Ceyhan in Turkey's south to Haifa in Israel's north, a thick bundle of pipes carrying crude oil in one, electricity in another, natural gas in yet another and in the fourth, a steady flow of fresh, sweet water, all thrumming along the floor of the Mediterranean Sea. Not only would these pipes serve as ties that bind two nations, but they would also show the world that a Muslim country could tether itself to the Jewish state, to their mutual benefit.
Which makes the events of the past few weeks all the more worrisome for Israel. With dizzying speed, Turkey has gone from offering oil and gas to Israel to threatening to send gunboats to the Gaza Strip to protect activists seeking to break Israel's naval blockade of the Palestinian territory. Enraged by Israel's refusal to apologize for its killing of eight Turks (and one Turkish American) on board a blockade-busting ferry last year, Ankara has ejected Israel's ambassador, downgraded diplomatic relations and imposed military sanctions on its former ally. And that "infrastructure corridor"? It's now a mere pipe dream. (See Israel's thinkers discussing the country's challenges over the next 60 years.)
This conspicuous unfriending could hardly come at a worse time for Israel. As representatives of 193 nations gather in New York City for their annual U.N. conclave, Palestinian leaders are polishing a statehood proposal that would change the fundamental terms of the Middle East's core conflict, possibly putting them on the same legal footing as Israel.
With most of the world sympathetic to the Palestinians, waylaying their application for statehood will require Israel to deploy diplomatic skills of the highest order. But its preparations have not been going well. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warmed up for the big event by alienating the U.S. President, at once misquoting and lecturing Obama during Netanyahu's visit to Washington in May. Then there's the Arab Spring, which knocked over the Arab neighbor Israel relied on most, Egypt's Hosni Mubarak; last week, the Israeli embassy was attacked by protesters in Cairo while the riot police stood by. The spectacular collapse of the Turkey alliance makes three strikes. (See pictures of Israelis clashing with Palestinians.)
The game's not over. Obama still plans to use the U.S. veto in the Security Council to deny Palestinians full membership. But they could take the matter to the General Assembly, where a vote would likely be lopsided, leaving Israel looking conspicuously isolated. Israelis approach the threats one at a time. The Netanyahu government is avoiding a diplomatic contre temps with Egypt, since the 1979 peace treaty between the two countries is crucial to Israel's defense. The U.N. is easier to criticize, and most Israelis feel it is generally biased toward the Palestinians. "We don't like the U.N.," says Daniel Reisner, a longtime peace negotiator and international-law specialist. "We don't trust it."
And Turkey? In a country where new homes are built with bomb shelters, diplomatic conflict is easily dismissed. "Turkey, Burkey," said Rabbi Ovadia Yosef, spiritual leader of the Shas party, a key member of Netanyahu's ruling coalition. "God Almighty couldn't care less about them. Who are they anyway?" (See TIME's special report "The Middle East in Revolt.")
Although Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan was once hailed as a vital ally, many Israelis now regard him as a neo-Ottoman, out to revive Turkish leadership of the Muslim world by beating up on the Jewish state. That's certainly how they perceived Erdogan's performance in Cairo, where he said in a Sept. 13 speech to the Arab League that Israel must "pay a price for its aggression and crimes" and that supporting Palestinian statehood was "not a choice but an obligation." Israel, he said, is "the West's spoiled child."
Across town, Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas was meeting with the European Union's Foreign Minister, working on a strategy to avoid the U.S. veto in the Security Council. The Europeans were urging Abbas to settle for the status of a "nonmember observer state," akin to that of the Vatican, which he could get from a vote in the General Assembly — thus avoiding the U.S. veto in the Security Council.
That would be no consolation to Israel, however, because it would very likely give Palestine access to the International Criminal Court. There, it could bring charges against Israel for building settlements on occupied territory and allegedly driving out Palestinians — it would argue that this amounts to a war crime. That changes things. Even if Abbas promises (as a condition of E.U. support) not to rush to the Hague, the mere fact that he could do so hands Palestinians new leverage in peace talks.
Not that the Palestinians are anywhere near ready for talks. For negotiations with Israel to have real meaning, Abbas' Fatah party must first reconcile with Hamas, uniting the West Bank and Gaza into one entity after new elections promised in May. But intra-Palestinian parleys have stalled: the two parties can't even agree on the time of day. Literally. In Gaza City, a university associated with Fatah keeps daylight time, while the Hamas school next door sets its clock with Egypt, an hour behind. "We are one people," wails Rewaa Fanouna, 21. "We ought to be united at least on the time!" (See pictures of life under Hamas in Gaza.)
Polls show that most Palestinians support the U.N. bid but don't necessarily understand what it might bring them. That's not surprising, given the muddy signals from their leaders on a legalistic matter. As late as Sept. 14, when this magazine printed, it was not clear whether Abbas would go the Security Council route or the General Assembly route. In any event, what Palestinians want most, after 44 years of Israeli occupation, is something the U.N. bid cannot deliver: immediate change on the ground.
Israel, meanwhile, seems unperturbed by the loss of so many friends. Netanyahu seemed willing to sour relations with the White House because he was confident it would play well back home: his selective quotation of Obama's call for a Palestinian state based on 1967 borders (leaving out the crucial qualifier "land swaps") was a hit with the Israeli public. (See pictures of Israel.)
Isolation carries a price, however. When Israel's embassy in Cairo was besieged Sept. 9 by a mob of Egyptians protesting their own transitional military rulers and Israel's killing of five Egyptian police officers after a terrorist attack the previous month, Netanyahu was unable to reach the top Egyptian general. In the end, he had to phone Obama to ask him to intervene.
That may have been the most positive exchange between the two in months. But it's not clear if Obama can head the Palestinians off at the pass in New York City. Averting a U.N. vote would depend on a credible promise of progress in peace talks, but Netanyahu has continued to sanction the steady expansion of the settlements on the West Bank. The White House has repeatedly asked him to freeze the construction of settlements on occupied land, and the Palestinians say they won't sit down to talks while the building continues. "From what we see, the construction is speeding even in settlements deeper in the West Bank," says Hagit Ofran of Peace Now, an Israeli group that monitors settlement construction. "So it doesn't seem, at least on the ground, the government is doing anything in favor of peace." Israel too has demands, among them Palestinian recognition of its status as a Jewish state. In this and other matters, Abbas is as unyielding as Netanyahu.
There's still time, of course. There's just the chance that two client states can be coaxed to accommodate their Washington sponsor. But it's September: the days are growing shorter.
Commentary
Talk about hypocrisy. America is not in favor of a two state solution. It is in favor of the status quo. Actions speak louder than words.
The status quo means more settlements, less peace, more deaths, and more terrorism around the world because of the lack of peace and the willingness to demonize the other side.
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