Thursday, May 20, 2010

'Strong' new Iran sanctions UN resolution being tabled / Iran hit by fresh UN nuclear sanctions threat


'Strong' new Iran sanctions UN resolution being tabled

Hillary Clinton attends the Senate with Secretary of Defense  Robert Gates, 18 May
Mrs Clinton accused Iran to trying to deflect pressure on the nuclear issue

Plans for a fourth set of UN sanctions against Iran over its nuclear programme are being circulated among all 15 members of the Security Council.

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said the five veto-wielding members had agreed on a "strong" draft resolution.

The measures foresee cargo ship inspections and new banking controls.

They come despite a recent deal in which Iran agreed to send low-enriched uranium to Turkey in return for enriched fuel for a research reactor.

But Mrs Clinton suggested Iran had been trying to deflect pressure.

ANALYSIS
Jon Leyne
Jon Leyne, BBC Tehran correspondent

This is Washington's answer to what was widely seen as a last-minute attempt by Iran to head off new sanctions.

Indeed, in slightly triumphant tone, Hillary Clinton said it was as convincing an answer as it was possible to provide.

It appears that the two more sceptical big powers, Russia and China, have not been convinced by Iran's agreeement to ship out a large part of its stocks of enriched uranium to Turkey.

For US officials the core issue was that Iran intended to continue enriching uranium, which the UN has banned, the BBC's Barbara Plett reports from New York

The Turkish deal, which Brazil helped to negotiate on Monday, was similar to one proposed by the West and its allies last year.

The members of the Security Council, which includes Turkey and Brazil, were holding a session behind closed doors on the resolution, but Brazil reportedly said it would not discuss the draft "at this point".

The US is quite confident of getting a majority of Council members behind the resolution although it may not get unanimity, our correspondent says. The vote is expected in June.

The sanctions, she adds, are not as strong as Western states would have wanted and some proposals were watered down by Russia and China.

China's UN Ambassador Li Baodong said on Tuesday that "the purpose of sanctions is to bring the Iranian said to the negotiating table".

"The sanctions are not for punishing innocent and should not harm normal trade," he added.

Russia's UN Ambassador Vitaly Churkin described the draft resolution as "well balanced".

"That's why we agreed to accept the text on the whole after the long discussions and corrections of the initial proposals and we find it to be an appropriate one," Mr Churkin was quoted as saying by Russia's Itar-Tass news agency.

There have been three rounds of UN sanctions against Iran, blocking trade of "sensitive nuclear material", freezing the financial assets of those involved in Iran's nuclear activities, banning all of Iran's arms exports and encouraging scrutiny of the dealings of Iranian banks.

The US and its Western allies fear that Iran is secretly trying to build a nuclear bomb. Tehran says its programme is aimed solely at peaceaful energry use.

'New situation'

Proposals in the 10-page resolution include:

• A comprehensive new framework for cargo ship inspections both in ports and on the high seas if there is reason to suspect a ship is carrying conventional arms or nuclear missile items

• A ban on countries selling tanks, armoured combat vehicles, warplanes, warships and other heavy weapons to Iran

• A ban on the opening of new branches, subsidiaries or representative offices of Iranian banks if there are grounds for believing that they are linked to nuclear proliferation

• Greater vigilance over transactions involving Iranian banks in order to prevent such transanctions contributing to proliferation of sensitive nuclear activities

• The placing of more members of the Revolutionary Guards on a list to have their assets frozen

Brazil's UN envoy said his country was not "engaging in any discussion on a draft at this point because we feel that there is a new situation".

"There was an agreement yesterday which is a very important one," Maria Luiza Ribeiro Viotti was quoted as telling reporters on the sidelines of the Security Council meeting.

Earlier, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan called on the world to support Monday's deal with Iran.

But he added that if Iran did not ship out the uranium within one month, as agreed, then it would be on its own.

'Strong draft'

Mrs Clinton addressed the US Senate foreign relations committee after talks between the five permanent Security Council members - the US, UK, Russia, China and France - and Germany.

"We have reached agreement on a strong draft with the co-operation of Russia and China," she said.

Mrs Clinton said she had spent Tuesday morning on the phone with her Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, "finalising the resolution".

Russia and China have previously resisted calls for a new round of sanctions.

Talking about the Turkish deal, Mrs Clinton accused Tehran of trying to deflect pressure from the major powers.

"We don't believe it was any accident that Iran agreed to this declaration as we were preparing to move forward in New York," she said.

"The fact that we had Russia on board, we had China on board and that we were moving early this week, namely today, to share the text of that resolution, put pressure on Iran which they were trying to somehow dissipate."

Source

Iran hit by fresh UN nuclear sanctions threat


The US has been Aerial photo of Iran's Uranium Conversion Facility, taken  30/3/2005, file photocriticised for moving the goalposts on Iran

After months of deadlock, suddenly the diplomatic confrontation over Iran's nuclear programme has burst back into life.

On Monday, Iran signed a deal with Brazil and Turkey, under which a large part of Iran's stocks of enriched uranium would be shipped to Turkey in exchange for new fuel for a Tehran research reactor.

It was widely seen as a last-ditch effort by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to deflect pressure for fresh sanctions, a diplomatic coup possibly enabling him to slip out of the encircling net.

But despite that, on Tuesday US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton announced agreement among the permanent five members of the security council on a new draft UN Security Council resolution on sanctions.

It is not clear whether the 10 non-permanent members of the council will support the draft. They include Brazil and Turkey, who have both said new sanctions are not now necessary.

But Mrs Clinton's comments strongly suggest that the hard-won support of China and Russia for the sanctions has withstood the blandishments of Mr Ahmadinejad.

At the same time Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, while calling on the world to give the deal a chance, warned Iran that if it did not deliver the fuel in one month, as agreed, it would be "on its own".

Efforts undermined

Iran watchers are already criticising Washington for moving the goal posts.

Iranian technicians mobve a container of radioactive uranium at  the Isfahan plant (archive image) Questions over Iran's programme have weakened Mr Ahmadinejad

The state department spokesman seemed to suggest that only the suspension of uranium enrichment by Iran would be enough to stop the new sanctions.

A senior US official said the negotiations on a fuel swap were on a "separate track" from the discussions over sanctions - and the deal with Brazil and Turkey, while well intentioned, was "largely beside the point".

Turkey and Brazil may also feel disappointed that this rapid announcement by the US secretary of state undermines their effort to find a diplomatic solution.

The problem for the United States and its allies is that they are very keen to keep the pressure on Iran.

Any suggestion that they are willing to hold off on sanctions and the coalition, so tortuously assembled, might begin to fall apart.

The West would fear that it might also give Iran the option to play for time.

After all, they might argue, this latest deal was only won under threat of those very sanctions.

Uranium questions

The deal itself certainly leaves plenty of unanswered questions. The Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS), a Washington think tank, pointed to one of the most obvious.

What happens to Iran's enriched uranium, shipped to Turkey, if and when it gets the fuel for its research reactor?

This declaration is not a victory for Iran but it is an obvious backtrack against the bullying demands of the West

Jomhuri-e-Eslami Iranian newspaper UN Sanctions against Iran

Under the original deal negotiated in Geneva last October, it was that low-enriched uranium that would be converted to higher-grade fuel for the Tehran research reactor.

Under this deal, it just sits in Turkey, while France provides fresh fuel for the research reactor.

Nothing in the agreement stipulates whether or not Iran gets its low-enriched uranium back.

Another point made by the ISIS is that the situation has changed since the original deal in October.

At that time, 1,200kgs of uranium made up the bulk of Iran's stocks.

Shipping it out of the country provided a high measure of security that it could not be diverted to make a bomb.

But since then Iran has been busily enriching. It may now possess more than 2,000kgs of enriched uranium.

And what happens also to the higher grade uranium - 20% grade - that Iran says it has been producing itself for the Tehran reactor?

A more fundamental question is whether President Ahmadinejad can actually deliver on this deal.

Two previous attempts to reach a similar agreement fell apart, when Mr Ahmadinejad came under sustained criticism at home.

It was the clearest evidence of the weakening of his domestic political position following last summer's election dispute.

Hardline response

This time, reaction in hardline newspapers has been less negative but still mixed.

Iranian, Brazilian and Turkish foreign ministers brokered the deal

Jomhuri-e-Eslami, which is seen as a hardline supporter of the supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, said the deal was "an obvious backtrack from Iran's announced strategy.

It said: "This declaration is not a victory for Iran but it is an obvious backtrack against the bullying demands of the West and the Islamic Republic of Iran should not accept it."

By contrast Keyhan, also seen as close to the supreme leader, said Iran had not backtracked, but rather "gained the objective guarantee that it was seeking".

So even hardliners in Iran are divided. One can only imagine how much greater those divisions are likely to become if they see that the moment is approaching for Iran's hard-won uranium to be sent out of the country, particularly if sanctions are still on track.

Perhaps Mr Ahmadinejad himself is bluffing, reaching a deal he believes he will never actually have to implement.

In that case, Washington might decide the best course is to call his bluff and agree to the deal.

Key timing

Meanwhile in New York, US officials are confident they have the votes they need for new sanctions - in other words, they have the support of nine members of the security council, and no vetoes from the permanent members.

But Western officials have always stressed the need for as much support as possible, so as to send the strongest possible message to Tehran.

Abstentions or negative votes from powerful countries such as Turkey or Brazil would be very damaging.

Another issue is the timing.

It has always been assumed that no vote would come forward this month while Lebanon is chairing the Security Council, because of the influential role of Iran's Hezbollah allies in Lebanon.

If it does slip to June, then the Americans have to decide whether they feel a vote would be productive in the sensitive days running up to the first anniversary of Mr Ahmadinejad's re-election on 12 June.

So a deal, originally put forward as a confidence-building measure, risks just becoming a new source of bitter debate between Iran and the West.

Source

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Commentary

So you're worried Iran has Nuclear weapons, and then when you're guaranteed that they can't get them any longer because they've transported their uranium, to get processed; now you want new sanctions?

It makes no sense. It's political jargon.

Once the fuel has been processed, it's finished, at 20%, and can't be used for weapons which are 90% or more enriched uranium.

So guaranteeing to the international community that you can no longer make weapons, isn't enough?

What more do you want from Iran?

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